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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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701 FXUS63 KGRR 011932 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 332 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers/storms possible Tuesday/Tuesday evening - Isolated Showers/Storms Wednesday - Chance of Thunderstorms Friday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 - Showers/storms possible Tuesday Sunny and and cooler weather will continue today with some clouds increasing overnight as a high continues to weaken as it moves eastward. A large upper level low will be moving through southern Canada tonight into tomorrow. this will bring a warm air out ahead of it so temperatures will be closer to normal tomorrow. It will also mean a frontal pattern will move through tomorrow afternoon/evening. Scattered showers with some isolated storms will be possible beginning in the northwest then spreading to the southeast tomorrow night. Latest QPF is upwards of an inch to an inch and a half in NW Mason county through most elsewhere it will be a half an inch or less. - Isolated Showers/Storms Wednesday A weakening cold front will wash out over our area Wednesday. A consensus of latest guidance suggests that an isolated shower or storm may just clip our se fcst area but that dry wx will prevail for the vast majority of the area. Convective development is more likely se of our fcst area Thursday afternoon. No airmass change will occur as this front washes out and warm and humid wx will continue late in the week. - Chance of Thunderstorms Friday A sfc low pressure system and mid to upper level wave will combine with increasing instability and deep layer shear to bring potential for organized convection Friday. A risk for severe wx may exist but this will be largely contingent on timing and how much instability develops. Seasonably warm and fairly humid wx is expected to continue through the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions will continue at all the terminals through 18Z Tuesday. Skies will remain clear this afternoon with wind speeds below 10 kts. Isolated showers may develop Tuesday morning but there will initially be a considerable amount of dry air at mid levels. As such there is not enough potential for a shower to warrant inclusion in any of the terminal forecasts through 18Z. If any showers do develop the (relatively) best chance for one would be at KMKG toward midday. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Winds will increase tomorrow afternoon and evening with the south-southeasterly flow. These winds will slowly shift to a more southerly wind flow. There will be periods, especially north of Holland, where parts of the shore and near shore could be hazardous for small craft and swimming due to waves and currents. However, there will be large lull periods and winds will be shifting. So due to this variability and the winds being marginal, have held off on headlines for now. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laurens/Ceru AVIATION...Laurens MARINE...Ceru