Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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519 FXUS63 KGRR 051916 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 316 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance for Isolated Severe Storms This Afternoon and Evening - Additional Showers Possible Saturday Afternoon - Dry and warm Sunday - Unsettled with showers/storms later Monday into Tuesday - Heat slowly starts to build late week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 - Chance for Isolated Severe Storms This Afternoon and Evening Thinking has not changed from earlier as we expect a continued chance for showers and storms through mid evening. Much if not all of the activity should come to an end by 900pm as the showers and storms rotate to the north and east out of the forecast area. Storms moving in from Wisconsin and over the lake will likely diurnally fade over Lake Michigan as we head towards 900pm or so. As for the threat, the setup consists of a low centered near Baldwin with a warm front to the east down U.S. 10 and a cold front stretching south down the lakeshore counties. The cold front has caught up with the lake breeze at this point. Scattered storms will continue to occur near both frontal boundaries through 800pm-900pm. The CAPE / Shear balance is definitely to levels that warrant a close watch today for severe weather. MUCAPE values have hit 1500 j/kg and deep layer shear is on the order of 40-50 knots. Storm organization is expected with that level of shear and we have seen that with rotation contained within storms today. Wind to 60 mph and hail to around 1 inch in diameter are the main threats. Locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out either as precipitable water values are in the 1.25 to 1.50 range. Little if any showers and storms are expected overnight as there is a healthy diurnal component to the ongoing activity. Widespread stratus looks to develop tonight, but fog looks to remain above levels that would be concerning to travelers. - Additional Showers Possible Saturday Afternoon Another mid level shortwave rotates in from the north on Saturday and we expect a diurnal flare of showers once again especially in interior portions of the state (up along U.S. 10 and down U.S. 127). There is less in the way of instability on Saturday (750 j/kg and lower) so we expect more showers than storms, but we cannot rule isolated thunderstorms. The precipitation will once again fade diurnally with the setting sun. Expecting mainly dry conditions Saturday night. - Dry and warm Sunday West Michigan will close out the holiday weekend with pleasant weather Sunday; partly to mostly sunny skies, low (<10%) chances for rainfall, and high temperatures in the lower 80s. This, thanks to a ridge of surface high pressure expected to be overhead early Sunday. This feature will migrate to the east by Sunday night, allowing southerly winds and WAA to develop, and thus set the stage for potential showers/storms to start the workweek. - Unsettled with showers/storms later Monday into Tuesday The Monday-Tuesday timeframe will feature a rather summer-like pattern, with warmth, humidity, and a chance (30-50%) for showers and storms. Ensembles agree that weak 500 mb troughing aloft, with an embedded short wave, will impact the region. The associated surface low/front will move from the upper MS valley to the Great Lakes late Monday, before moving east of the area late Tuesday. Modest /at best/ synoptic support for ascent, together with daytime heating, will generate scattered showers/storms. Current indications suggest the best coverage from late Monday through Tuesday. Overall support/dynamics suggest low severe weather threat, though an isolated summertime severe storm not out of the question. Highs in the mid 80s Monday will drop off to around 80 Tuesday. - Heat slowly starts to build late week Aforementioned upper troughiness will move east of the Great Lakes during the middle and latter parts of next week, and this will allow 500 mb heights across the Great Lakes to slowly rise. Surface high pressure over the upper Great Lakes Wednesday is currently forecast to shift east to New England by late week. This setup supports increasing warmth with limited shower/storm chances. High temperatures in the lower to middle 80s can be expected Wed/Thu/Fri, and West Michigan *may* potentially make another run at 90F next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 155 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Though current West Michigan TAFs do not explicitly contain thunder, a small risk continues through the afternoon. The greatest instability currently resides across central Lower MI, and it`s beginning to appear this will remain the areas with greatest coverage as a cold front now over Lake Michigan sweeps across the state through early evening. Will amend TAFs if development occurs and/or confidence grows. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions this afternoon will give way to MVFR conditions (1000-2500ft ceilings) overnight in cool/cyclonic flow behind cold front. Some improvement is expected is expected during the day Saturday, with areas of MVFR improving to VFR afternoon - as clouds slowly diminish. South winds will become west behind front this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 316 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Low pressure will move off to the east of Lake Michigan tonight which will set up a northwest flow tonight into Saturday. Winds look to peak late tonight and into Saturday midday in the 10-20 knot range. This should keep waves/currents below Beach Hazards Statement and Small Craft Advisory levels. Northerly flow events though have a tendency to overperform in the summer so we will be vigilant tomorrow (Sat) in watching the wave field on webcams and via buoys. As of now we expect waves to remain in the 1-3 foot range. Cannot rule out a midday to afternoon bump into the 2-4 foot range, but we think it should remain below the 3-5 foot advisory level. Beyond Saturday afternoon winds look light for Saturday night and Sunday so the later half of the holiday weekend looks good for swimmers and boaters. Winds do try to increase again Sunday night possibly reaching the 15-20 knot range. Chance of reaching advisory level again though look low. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke/Smith AVIATION...Smith MARINE...Duke