Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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632 FXUS63 KGRR 061147 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 747 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated Showers and Storms Today - Another round of showers/storms possible early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 - Isolated Showers and Storms Today Fairly tranquil weather expected over the weekend as upper troughing prevails, but model soundings show a drying trend through Sunday. There will be enough moisture and diurnally driven instability to pop some showers and isolated thunderstorms today with the greatest coverage this afternoon across interior zones. With westerly low level flow we expect a lake shadow and little or no showers across the western zones. Shower activity diminishes and ends Saturday evening with the loss of insolation. Model soundings are drying out and surface ridging builds in on Sunday, so we will continue the dry forecast. - Another round of showers/storms possible early next week Another deep trough will swing into the region late Sunday night through Monday. Latest mid range models are in good agreement on the position and track of this positively tilted upper level trough. Copious amounts of mid level moisture will accompany this trough and coupled with good 500 mb vorticity there should be enough instability for showers and storms in the Tuesday timeframe. The biggest question is how much gulf moisture will this system tap into. Given the latest ensembles, while there is anomalous moisture moving through the region by mid week, the best moisture will be just east of the region. However there are some outliers that open the possibility for heavier rainfall. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 747 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The biggest aviation concern this morning is the IFR to LIFR cigs and vsbys this morning. Low clouds will continue to move eastward and will keep periods of IFR at AZO, BTl, GRR and JXN until 14Z. LAN and MKG are currently MVFR put could see periods of IFR until 14Z. Conditions will improve between 14Z and 16Z before becoming VFR. Low clouds will continue through the day at around 4KFT. Skies will clear this evening between 22Z to 00Z. There is a slight chance for isolated showers/storms that could affect KLAN, however it is a low probability event so have left out any mention in the TAF for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Winds and waves are expected to remain non-hazardous to boaters and swimmers over the weekend and into next week. The chance for thunderstorms is also low until early next week. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ostuno/Ceru AVIATION...Ceru MARINE...Ostuno