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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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896 FXUS63 KGLD 050007 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 607 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances return late Friday on into the upcoming weekend. - There will be scattered chances for storms next week for a few days, especially during the latter portion of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are sunny as a strong surface ridge is currently stretched over the area. Temps as of 200 PM MDT are ranging in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Winds are continuing from a northerly direction w/ gusts into the 25-30 mph range through the day. Weather concerns in the short term period will focus on thunderstorm chances around the area. Currently, the area lies under NW flow aloft with an amplified 500 mb ridge set up over the western portion of the country. For the remainder of this afternoon into tonight, high pressure will remain intact for much of the CWA, providing a nice cool and dry period. CAMs do hint at a 15-20% chance for a few rw/trw to develop over northeast Colorado, dissipating by Friday morning. A weak 500/700mb shortwave will create some weak instability giving some elevated shower potential, but nothing of any impact. The latest GFS/NAM do differ from Friday onward in terms of areal coverage of precip. The focus will be a developing low/trough over eastern Colorado Friday afternoon. This system will meander into the CWA Friday night into Saturday. This system will drift over the southern CWA and eventually redevelop west again by Sunday. This will allow for at least 20-50% chances for rw/trw. Highest probs will have the eastern CWA in the zone. The ample low level moisture on S/SE flow this weekend will aid in trw chances. Instability on Saturday afternoon/evening from the latest model soundings has DCape around 1300-1400j/kg, MLCape around 1500-1600j/kg and SBCape 2300- 2400j/kg. This is from the latest NAM run around 18z Saturday-00z Sunday. As a result, SPC carries a Marginal Risk for severe on Saturday for the CWA. Similar chances occur for Sunday, but no outlook at this time. For temps, highs on Friday will range in the lower to mid 80s. Going into this weekend, Saturday will have a range from the mid 80s into the lower 90s, followed by a cooler day on Sunday with upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows for tonight will range in the 50s, with warmest locales east of Highway 25. Slightly warmer Friday and Saturday nights with mid 50s west to around 60F in eastern locales. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 159 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 From the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF, a strong amplified 500mb ridge sits over the western portion of the country Sunday night with a slow movement eastward towards the central Rockies by mid to late week. This will allow a northwest flow aloft to transition slowly to weakening winds as the dome of high pressure begins to exert influence into the central Plains. There will be a few weak shortwaves that will work southward along the eastern side of the ridge, impacting portions of the area. At the surface, high pressure pushing south into the region will push up against a frontal boundary and associated surface low in SE Colorado. Will continue to see 20-40% chances for rw/trw to impact mainly areas south of the Interstate. Models do differ on the position of the building ridge creating some uncertainty as to the areal coverage of pops in the CWA. So will continue the 20-30% chances for northern areas. High pressure in place for Monday and Monday night providing the region with a dry yet warm day. By Tuesday, the next shortwave will interact with southerly flow over the area as low pressure sets up over the Front Range. Weak instability ahead of the low will trigger a 20% chance for rw/trw, but expands eastward during the evening hours as the low moves into the CWA. This low will meander over Kansas going into Wednesday as high pressure builds south once again. Moisture around the vicinity of the low and front remnants will bring a 20% chance to the area by Wednesday evening, giving way to a hot day by thursday as high pressure settles over the area. For temps, going into the beginning of next week, Monday`s highs will range in the lower to mid 80s. Going into Tuesday and Wednesday, upper 80s to lower 90s are expected. By next Thursday, a bit hotter with lower to mid 90s expected. Overnight lows will see a slight warming trend as well as next week progresses. Sunday night will have a range in the 50s, warmest east. Upper 50s to lower 60s for Monday and Tuesday nights. Wednesday night has a range from the upper 50s to mid 60s, followed by lower to mid 60s for next Thursday night. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 530 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Both terminals (KGLD/KMCK) will see VFR conditions through the forecast periods. For winds, initially northerly around 10-15kts will shift variably from the northeast to the northwest from ~03z-12z for both terminals. After 12Z, wids should remain light out of the northwest for the remainder of the period. Latest guidance suggests some shower and sub-severe storm development from 06Z to 22Z Friday afternoon. Should these develop, it would primarily impact the KMCK terminal. AMDs will be made as needed. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...KMK