182
FXUS63 KGLD 140622
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1222 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures in the 90s to low 100s to start the week (
  hottest on Tuesday) before slightly cooler temperatures in
  the 70s/80s mid week.

- Daily chances for showers and storms begin Tuesday during the
  afternoon to evening hours. Some storms may be strong to
  severe especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1221 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The fairly calm pattern is expected to gradually erode over the
next 36 hours. Currently, a high pressure system over the
western CONUS is extending into the High Plains. However, a
stout shortwave trough is breaking down this high over the Great
Basin and will continue to the east. During the day, we won`t
experience much of a change, except a few degrees warmer. Highs
look to warm into the lower to mid 90s with southwesterly winds
becoming southeasterly around noon. Overnight temperatures look
to cool into the 60s tonight.

In the afternoon, storms look to form off the Palmer Divide and
enter the western portions of the CWA. CAMs are showing these
storms quickly decaying as they enter the CWA, not making it to
the eastern Colorado border. However, NAM and GFS guidance is
showing amplified vorticity in northeastern Colorado starting
around 3Z, as the shortwave starts moving in. This looks to
continue overnight, which could (10% chance) keep showers or
storms ongoing through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A potentially more active long term period may be in store starting
on Tuesday. Low pressure across Colorado is forecast to be in place;
the exact location of this will dictate if storms occur in the CWA.
ECMWF ensembles suggest still a large range of outcomes with the
low, if the low remain in Colorado then the storm threat will
increase however some suggest the low will begin to eject into the
area which will eliminate any storm potential. The positioning of
this also will be where a dry line will set up. Looking at the NAM
which typically handles dry line placement the best has low to mid
30 dew points along the Palmer to the low 50s at Goodland and low 60
further east. Previous runs are similar along with a slight drying
trend that occurred for the 12Z run so it will be interesting
to see if that trend continues. Based on this do think we can
get some dry line convection if the low can stay in Colorado,
the best forcing looks to be Highway 36 and north into Nebraska
where some weak 500mb jet stream diffluence is seen for the
Goodland CWA; further north into Nebraska a cold front looks to
be in place along with better upper level support increasing
storm chances; a southern trend is also seen as well with this
500mb jet support. For the Goodland CWA, at this time am leaning
towards some storms along the dry line and more isolated in
nature along and north of Highway 36 capable of large hail and
damaging winds as wind shear is around 20-30 knots, stronger to
the north. If the upper level support should continue to shift
south then the storm chances would increase for the area.
Continued warm air advection through the evening hours would
help support additional back building storms to occur as well

Wednesday, appears to be a little more supportive for showers and
storms for the area during the late afternoon and through the
evening hours. A fairly potent shortwave looks to move off of the
Front Range during the late afternoon hours which will be an initial
source of lift. Further to the north the cold front mentioned above
is forecast to move into the area providing another source of
lift for the area as dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s
should be enough for convection along the front. If not then
cold pools from convection from the shortwave could also help
spark additional storms. There still remains some discrepancies
however with guidance, the ECMWF is quicker with the wave
ejection than the NAM and slower with the front which leads to
better moisture for the area and delays any rainfall with the
front roughly 12 hours or so. If this scenario does occur then
better moisture would be in place along with the potential for
an all hazards event; looking at ensemble data this seems to be
roughly a 5-10% chance of occurring as most of the members
supports a quicker frontal passage (which also may end up
eliminating the severe threat all together) and is typically
what does occur. Needless to say there is still a lot that needs
to be worked out.

Thursday and through the remainder of the extended period continues
to suggest the potential for weak daily waves moving through the
area due to larger scale synoptic troughing and a surface high
in place across the southern Plains and the southeast CONUS.
Some signal for some better monsoonal flow working up through
New Mexico and eastern Arizona next weekend which may continue
to indicate continuation of the active pattern.

Temperature wise for the extended period. Warm to hot temperatures
are currently forecast on Tuesday with highs in the 90s to low 100s
due to some warming downsloping flow. Some moisture is still
forecast to be in place which lead to some spotty areas where Heat
Advisory criteria with heat indices around 105 degrees may be
close or be met so upcoming shifts will need to keep an eye on
that potential. Wednesday and Thursday temperatures will be
dependent on the speed of the cold front. If the front moves
through Wednesday night instead of Wednesday afternoon/evening
then high temperatures may struggle to get out of the 70s for
Thursday; if its quicker to move through then highs may need to
be raised as the cooler air mass looks to be fairly progressive.
Late week and into next weekend will see the potential for
above normal temperatures to return as the surface high across
the southern Plains and the southeast returns.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1056 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Until
about 18Z, winds will be favoring the southwest, after that,
they`ll favor the southeast. We could see some occasional 25-30
kts gusts around 0Z +/- 3 hours at both KGLD and KMCK. KGLD has
a 10% chance of seeing decaying storms leading to erratic gusts
around 6-12Z Tuesday. Overall, a good time to fly.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...CA