Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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912 FXUS63 KGLD 032005 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 205 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms are possible this afternoon/evening, and will be capable of producing hail up to 3 inches, wind gusts to 80 mph, and a tornado or two. - Breezy 4th of July; normal to below normal temperatures into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are a partly to mostly sunny mix as lingering/increasing cumulus remains from this morning, and has been slowly increasing this afternoon. Ttemperatures as of 100 PM MDT are ranging in the 80s with a persistent southerly flow area-wide, with gusts up to 30 mph at times. The main wx concerns for the short term period will be the threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Currently there are a couple weak persistent boundaries along/north of Highway 36, and a large front/trough over northeast Colorado just west of Yuma and Kit Carson counties. The latest CAMs are showing the front to the west to be the main initiator of rw/trw. Both the HRRR and NamNest are showing a broken line of storms developing/approaching the western CWA boundary around 22z, potentially in 2-3 segments to start. These clusters of storms will then push through the CWA and possibly forming into one line around Highway 27 then push E/SE through the remainder of the area. 40-60% chance of precip during the peak times through 03z. The latest SPC Meso Analysis is showing 1500-3000j/kg of SBCape already spread out over the CWA after main cloud cover dissipated west to east by midday. DCape from Highway 27 west is ranging from 1000-1500j/kg with the highest numbers closest to the front previously mentioned. Bulk effective shear is 30-40 knots from the W/NW. Low level lapse rates are increasing into the 8-9C/km over portions of the CWA, while mid level numbers are highest near the front off west around 8-9C/km, but are slowly increasing east towards our area. With this, will be looking for all hazards possible for the region through this evening. SPC still carries a Slight Risk for severe over us with hatched hail/wind threats. Could see the wind more as storms move east into Kansas, but hail could be the initial threat. The difference between today and past few days is the lower levels are not as dry, making hail more possible. Enhanced Stretching parameter around 6 is now over the CWA, and with CAMs showing a potential bowing structure in KS after 00z Thursday, potential for QLCS tornadoes spin ups does exist. High PW values from 1-1.2" west increase to 1.3-1.6" in the east, making locally heavy rainfall a possibility. WPC carries a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall as a result. Looking for precip to taper from west to east between 00z-06z, with some lingering scattered rw/trw in the east before exiting. Thursday and Thursday night looks to remain mostly dry. There is a low chance(15-20%) for a rw/trw in the far SW due to a weak shortwave passage. For temps, looking for highs on Thursday to range in the upper 70s into the mid 80s. Overnight lows for tonight will range in the mid 50s west into the mid 60s east. For Thursday night, in the 50s area- wide with warmest locales east of Highway 25. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1214 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 NW flow looks to be present across the Plains as a highly amplified ridge develops across the western CONUS. Will be continuing to watch for daily chances for showers and storms as this is a pattern that is favorable for subtle waves moving along the eastern periphery of the amplified ridge. Slight chance to chance pops (20-40%) look to remain across the CWA for most days with perhaps the relatively more favorable days looking to be Saturday and Sunday as guidance is hinting at a stronger wave within the northwest flow to impact the area. It does appear that there may be some severe weather potential with it with shear around 30-40 knots across the area and CAPE between 1000-1500 j/kg but is a bit to earlier to nail down exact specifics at this time. As for temperatures they are looking to continue to remain near normal to below normal with highs generally in the 80s across the area. The exception does look to be Saturday where some low 90s could sneak into the area. Temperatures do look to increase as towards the start of the new work week as the ridge and associated surface high start move more easterly. As this occurs then the chances for rain will begin to diminish with it as well. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 955 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 For KGLD, concerns for the forecast period will be the potential for thunderstorms. Currently, VFR conditions are expected, with VCTS potential from 23z-03z due to low confidence on timing. Some -SHRA possible from 03z-12z Thursday. Winds, south- southeast 15-25kts through 03z, then diminishing to 10kts. By 12z, northwest 15-25kts. For KMCK, concerns for the forecast period will be the potential for thunderstorms. Currently, VFR conditions are expected for much of the forecast period. MVFR ceilings around 11z-14z. VCTS in from 00z-04z due to low confidence on timing. 04z-11z could have 6sm in light showers impact the terminal. Winds, south-southeast 15-25kts through 04z Thursday, then 5-10kts. by 11z, northwest 10-20kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...JN