Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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934 FXUS63 KGLD 031815 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1215 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms are possible this afternoon/evening. However, if storms/cloud cover are present through the morning and early afternoon hours, storm and severe chances will be very low. Otherwise, the storms later today will be capable of producing hail up to 3 inches, wind gusts to 80 mph, and a tornado or two. Be sure to look for updates this afternoon. - Breezy to gusty 4th of July; normal to below normal temperatures into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 227 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Another night, another round of storms moving/developing in the area. Radar continues to show storms trying to develop and move into the area generally south of I-70. Given the moisture advecting into the area and the general east/northeast movement, am expecting these storms to move through the area in a few clusters through the morning. The storms and additional cloud cover should help mitigate fog chances, though prior nights suggest that some patchy fog may still be able to form in this moist low level air mass. Today will largely be dictated by whether cloud/storms are present through the day or not. Areas that remain cloud cover or see storms through the morning will be more likely to only warm to around 80, while the rest of the area would warm into the mid to upper 80s. Currently, Northwest Kansas is favored to be cloud covered with counties near the Colorado border more likely to clear. Should storms be present through the morning, severe weather looks to be unlikely with CAPE generally less than 1000 J/KG and cloud cover inhibiting the development of more instability. Maybe could see a severe wind gust with a stronger storm, but the lack of DCAPE and winds remaining generally below 50 kts will keep the chance very low. For this afternoon, still looking at a shortwave trough moving through the Western Rockies and Northern Plains with a deepening low pressure near the Front Range. This will provide more than adequate forcing for storms to develop, especially along the Palmer Divide. The complicating factor is how long cloud cover and storms will linger through the morning and early afternoon. If storms and cloud cover linger through much of the day, this afternoons storms could be limited in coverage and intensity, if they even form at all. If the storms and cloud cover break during the early afternoon hours, then the area will have a decent chance for a few cluster of storms to develop and move through parts of the area. In this scenario, higher instability (CAPE 2000 J/KG, Mid Lapse Rates 8C+) and high effective shear (45-60 kts) could allow for some initial supercell development. This would favor Eastern Colorado and give the highest chance for large hail today, potentially up to 3 inches in size. A tornado may also be possible, though low level shear and SRH continues to be forecast to be low. As storms progressed east, clusters and lines would become more likely and increase the wind threat. With DCAPE greater than 1000 J/KG, downshear vectors around 50-65 kts, and mid to high cloud winds around 50-70 kts, damaging wind gusts to 80 mph are possible, especially in a linear mode. Large hail and maybe a QLCS tornado would also be possible, but wind would be the main threat at that point. In summary, there is a chance for strong severe storms this afternoon and evening (likely between 3-9pm MT). All hazards are possible, though wind is the main threat, followed by hail. If this morning`s storms and/or cloud cover persist, the risk for storms and severe storms will lower considerably. Tonight, skies are forecast to initially clear from any afternoon/evening storms. However, another round of storms is possible as the trough swings through and the surface low/front push through the area. Storms would likely be sub-severe, but there could be enough instability and DCAPE for an instance or two of large hail or wind gusts to 65 mph. Lows are forecast to drop to 50`s for the western half of the area, but 60`s for the eastern half of the area where the second round of storms is possible. For the 4th of July, a relatively mild day is forecast with highs in the 80`s and skies becoming mostly sunny as drier air works into the area behind the front. The main inconvenience will be the presence of stronger winds from the north with speeds around 20 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. For the evening hours, winds are forecast to begin tapering off as the sun sets. Skies should remain clear short of a low potential for some storms to develop over the higher terrain in Eastern Colorado. Chances are only 15% and even then would likely be limited to an isolated storm or two that dissipates fairly quickly. The overnight hours would see temperatures drop into the 50`s with lighter winds and mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1214 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 NW flow looks to be present across the Plains as a highly amplified ridge develops across the western CONUS. Will be continuing to watch for daily chances for showers and storms as this is a pattern that is favorable for subtle waves moving along the eastern periphery of the amplified ridge. Slight chance to chance pops (20-40%) look to remain across the CWA for most days with perhaps the relatively more favorable days looking to be Saturday and Sunday as guidance is hinting at a stronger wave within the northwest flow to impact the area. It does appear that there may be some severe weather potential with it with shear around 30-40 knots across the area and CAPE between 1000-1500 j/kg but is a bit to earlier to nail down exact specifics at this time. As for temperatures they are looking to continue to remain near normal to below normal with highs generally in the 80s across the area. The exception does look to be Saturday where some low 90s could sneak into the area. Temperatures do look to increase as towards the start of the new work week as the ridge and associated surface high start move more easterly. As this occurs then the chances for rain will begin to diminish with it as well. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 955 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 For KGLD, concerns for the forecast period will be the potential for thunderstorms. Currently, VFR conditions are expected, with VCTS potential from 23z-03z due to low confidence on timing. Some -SHRA possible from 03z-12z Thursday. Winds, south- southeast 15-25kts through 03z, then diminishing to 10kts. By 12z, northwest 15-25kts. For KMCK, concerns for the forecast period will be the potential for thunderstorms. Currently, VFR conditions are expected for much of the forecast period. MVFR ceilings around 11z-14z. VCTS in from 00z-04z due to low confidence on timing. 04z-11z could have 6sm in light showers impact the terminal. Winds, south-southeast 15-25kts through 04z Thursday, then 5-10kts. by 11z, northwest 10-20kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...JN