Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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321 FXUS63 KGLD 051811 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1211 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms are possible through the day today, severe storms are not expected at this time. - Severe weather chances return for the weekend. Tomorrow could see severe storms develop with all hazards possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 152 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Current observations show the area remains in northwest flow aloft with a few showers and storms trying to get going in Eastern Colorado. These showers and storms will be the main focus as the northwest flow allows a small wave to move through while mid levels are forecast to be saturated or nearly saturated. As long as some forcing moves through, showers and storms are forecast to become a bit higher in coverage and track across the area. Rainfall amounts would likely be below a tenth with relatively dry air near the surface and no signs of large scale forcing to help make storms stronger. Instabilty is also forecast to be weak with little CAPE, but mid level lapse rates nearing 8 C/KM. As long as the showers and storms develop, the area will then see a mix of clouds and sun with showers and storms also mixed in. With this and the relatively cooler air mass still in place, highs should climb to near 80 today. If the storms and cloud cover die out early in the morning, then temperatures may be a few degrees warmer than forecast. Tonight, the mid-level saturation is forecast to dry out which should allow skies to clear and keep the area clear of storms, even with continued northwest flow. Lows are forecast to drop into the 50`s. Tomorrow, a shortwave within the larger trough is forecast to swing through the Northern Plains with low pressure developing along the Front Range and western half of the area. The usual question is will our flow predominately be from the south or southwest? The more the flow is from the southwest, the less of the area that will see storm chances and the farther east the dryline will be. For any area along and ahead of the dryline, storms are forecast to fire up along the dryline and surface convergence areas associated with the warm front. Similar to prior events like this, any initial storms along either boundary would have the capability to produce large hail (potentially to around 2 inches) and a tornado. As the afternoon goes on, storms would likely cluster and move east, becoming more of a wind threat. Currently NW Kansas and SW Nebraska are the favored areas to be ahead of the dryline, but this could shift during the next 24 hours. In regards to high temperatures, the southerly flow is forecast to bring in warmer air and allow temperatures to warm into mid 80`s through the lower 90`s. Tomorrow night, storms may continue through the night depending on how much dry air moved in during the day. If more moist air remains over the area, the low and front are forecast to not move too quickly to the south, which would allow additional storms to develop. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1211 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Current runs of the GFS and ECMWF are continuing to show a broad amplified 500mb ridge over the western portion of the country on Monday that will eventually shift slowly eastward by Friday. At the surface, the shifting of the upper ridge during the week will allow for a ridge to set up east of the area during this time, with a surface trough to our west. The trough does extend into the CWA Tuesday night through Wednesday night in tandem with a weak shortwave working through the east side of the upper ridge. This could give a 15-20% for trw/rw during this time, otherwise dry weather is expected. The focus for storms Tuesday night and Wednesday will be the entire CWA, but shift to along/south of the Interstate for Wednesday night. With the lack of moisture during the extended period, a return to near and above normal highs is expected area-wide as 850 temps Tuesday will range +24c to +28c with a range by Friday around +28c to +32c. This will be aided in part by southerly surface flow on the non-precip days. For temps, highs on Monday are expected to range in the upper 70s west into the mid 80s east, but will give way to upper 80s through the mid 90s from next Tuesday onward. Hottest day will be on Friday, mainly east of the Colorado border. Overnight lows will have a similar trend with mid and upper 50s Monday night give way to lower and mid 60s by the end of the week. Warmest locales will be east Highway 25. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 955 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 For KGLD, through 22z this afternoon there will be a MVFR/VFR mix as rw/trw possible that could lower visibility to around 3-6sm, especially from 18z-19z. From 22z onward, VFR expected. Winds, north around 10kts through 22z then light/variable. By 07z Saturday, south 10-20kts. For KMCK, mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period. There could be some light showers through 21z with no impacts expected at this time. Winds, west-northwest around 10kts through 02z Saturday, then light/variable. By 14z, south 10-15kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...JN