067
FNUS75 KGJT 170138
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Bucktail...Montrose Dispatch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
738 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 MDT on August 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A shift in high pressure toward the Texas Panhandle
will cause flow to shift to the southwest on Saturday. In response,
a surge of subtropical moisture from the Mexican Plateau will move
over the area from late morning through the afternoon. As a result,
isolated, high based storms become possible over surrounding high
terrain with little chance of wetting rain on the fire itself.
More likely are outflow wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph. Moisture
increases further Sunday with improved chances for wetting rain
and slightly cooler temperatures.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) through noon, then
                    becoming partly cloudy (40-50 percent) with
                    isolated showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....85-90.
Min humidity........17-22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Downslope 3 to 7 mph through 1000, then
                    becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the
                    afternoon with occasional gusts to 25 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Increasing to excellent in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 2.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 11900 ft AGL in the at peak
                    heating.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 mph.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms through the night.
CWR.................10 percent.
Min temperature.....60-65.
Max humidity........53-58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Becoming downslope 5 to 10 mph by 2100. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Decreasing to poor (6000 knot-ft) overnight.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................2 until 2100, then 1.
Mixing height.......Decreasing to 900 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 17 mph shifting to the east 10 mph
                    overnight.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
CWR.................40 percent.
Max temperature.....81-86.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Downslope 3 to 6 mph through 1000, then becoming
                    southwest 7 to 12 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 5.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 10100 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 10 mph.

$$

Forecaster...Norv Larson
Requested by...Mike Sweet
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2419424.53/GJT
.DELDT 08/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL joshua.oak@usda.gov,comtc@firenet.gov