639
FNUS75 KGJT 112253
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Bucktail...Montrose Dispatch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
453 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 MDT on August 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Lingering showers are possible Monday morning before
scattered showers and thunderstorms redevelop over the higher
terrain Monday afternoon. Similar to previous days, storms will be
capable of producing gusty outflow winds to 40 mph, small hail
and frequent lightning. Periods of moderate to heavy rain can also
be expected with stronger storms, leading to increased potential
for flooding. Outside of showers and storms, look for passing
clouds and relatively weak winds.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the morning, then
                    showers and thunderstorms likely in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent.
Max temperature.....76-81.
Min humidity........40-45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 mph shifting to the southwest 5 to
                    8 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near showers and thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor through the morning, then fair. Increasing
                    to good in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low.
LAL.................2 until 0900, then 3 until 1100, then 4 until
                    1500, then 5 until 1700, then 4.
Mixing height.......1050 ft AGL increasing to 6800 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 5 mph shifting to the southwest at 5 to
                    10 mph in the afternoon.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................30 percent.
Min temperature.....59-64.
Max humidity........65-70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 mph, becoming downslope/downvalley
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair decreasing to poor overnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low.
LAL.................4.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL decreasing to 800 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast
                    overnight.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms in the morning,
                    then showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................60 percent.
Max temperature.....76-81.
Min humidity........38-43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Downslope/downvalley winds 5 mph through mid
                    morning, then becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near showers and thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor through mid to late morning, then fair.
                    Becoming good and then very good in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low.
LAL.................3 until 0900, then 4 until 1200, then 5.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL increasing to 7900 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 10 mph shifting to the southwest 12 to
                    18 mph in the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...Megan Stackhouse
Requested by...Ryan Donner
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2419424.49/GJT
.DELDT 08/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL joshua.oak@usda.gov,comtc@firenet.gov