371
FXUS65 KGJT 061123
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
523 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- With high pressure in control, dry, warm, sunny, and breezy
  conditions will occur for the weekend.

- Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for NE UT and NW CO. Added
  CO Fire Zone 202 and UT Fire Zone 490 as critical fire weather
  conditions will shift a bit further south.

- Monsoon moisture may return to the region towards the end of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 158 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Warm and dry conditions remain the rule as high pressure off to
our west remains in control. Broad west through northwesterly
flow continues across the area while waves of energy drop down
from Montana and Wyoming. Previous model runs suggested a chance
for some precip along the Divide but latest runs have shifted
this precip further eastward keeping our entire CWA dry. We`ll
see a few shallow clouds over the higher terrain this afternoon
and that will be about it. A weak jet streak will be
approaching the area today and with deeper mixing expected, we
can expect some gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph, maybe a bit higher
at times. For those areas with critical fuels, critical fire
weather conditions will be met as described in the fire weather
section below.

Sunday, more of the same as the jet streak moves more directly
over the CWA. Chances do increase (20 to 40% chance) for a few
showers or storms along the Divide but coverage is lackluster
at best so nothing to get too excited about. We`ll see another
day of gusty winds, shifting a bit further south favoring areas
south of the I-70 corridor, especially the San Juans and
southern valleys. Again, look for a few clouds over the higher
terrain, similar to today. Neutral advection will also keep
temperatures right about what we saw yesterday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 158 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The amplified ridge of high pressure baking the West persists
Monday. Fortunately for our temperatures, we remain under the
northwesterly flow on the eastern flank of this ridge. Afternoon
highs will remain near normal to just under as we dodge the
subsidence bringing record highs to our west. Deep mixing will keep
afternoons breezy and low relative humidities will turn an eye
towards marginal critical fire weather conditions all week. A weak
moisture signature returns to the picture Tuesday afternoon as some
more monsoonal flow attempts to sneak beneath the ridge. This might
be enough for a shower along our southern Divide mountains, but
eroding the dry air mass will take more than this. A series of waves
comes ashore over the PACNW Wednesday and begins to degrade the
ridge. Models keep the weak moisture working northward over the Four
Corners each day. Unfortunately, PWAT values remain below seasonal
normals this week. Thursday, models begin to resolve another ridge
reforming overhead and pushing our temperatures back toward triple
digits in the desert valleys. This will serve to force moisture back
west and into the Great Basin out of reach for us. This late week
moisture push on Friday looks like a good opportunity for some
rainfall, if it were only a bit farther east. Still some time for
models to come around, but a warm and dry forecast looks to continue
as we reinforce the hot, dry air mass locked in place.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Mostly sunny skies continue today with the biggest concern being
some gusty west through northwest winds. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph,
occasionally higher at times, are expected this afternoon and
early evening. Outside of that, no concerns noted as VFR
conditions remain in place.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

High pressure remains in place through the weekend resulting in warm
and dry weather. Breezy conditions are expected each afternoon with
northeast Utah and northwest Colorado seeing the strongest winds
this afternoon and evening. As such, the current Red Flag
Warnings remain in effect. Some stronger winds are forecast to
shift a bit further south today so with that, decided to add UT
Fire Zone 490 and CO Fire Zone 202 to the going Red Flag
Warnings. Elsewhere, elevated fire conditions will be more
localized or will occur where fuels are not considered
critical.

On Sunday, breezy conditions develop again in the afternoon and
evening though the stronger winds will be found south of the
I-70 corridor. Fuels have been deemed not critical by our fire
weather partners in much of this area, despite low humidities,
gusty winds AND recent fire starts (especially in the southern
valleys) in those areas so no products have been issued. The
only exception is UT Fire Zone 491 in southeast Utah. Would
still like to see a bit more coverage before issuing any
products so will hold off on including them in any Watch or
Warning.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     COZ200-202.

UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     UTZ485>487-490.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT