660
FXUS65 KGJT 052340
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
540 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, warm and occasionally breezy weather continues through the
  weekend.

- This regime will bring the return of critical fire weather
  conditions across northern portions of Colorado and Utah. A
  Red Flag Warning has been issued for Saturday afternoon and
  evening where fuels are critical.

- Monsoon moisture may return to the region towards the end of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Warm and dry conditions continue to be the highlight of the short
term forecast. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a high pressure
system sitting just west of the California/Oregon coast early
this afternoon resulting in a dry northwesterly flow pattern in
our neck of the woods. Conditions for the rest of the afternoon
will be very similar to what we saw yesterday with periodic
gusts of 20-25 mph possible. Northwesterly flow persists
tomorrow with the main difference being an upper-level jet
streak that begins to sag south towards the northern half of the
forecast area. Breezy winds are expected tomorrow afternoon
during peak daytime mixing as a result. Parts of northeast Utah
and northwest Colorado are forecast to see the strongest gusts
ranging from 25 to 35 mph. This, paired with the warm and dry
airmass in place, will lead to fire weather concerns. See the
Fire Weather section for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

On Sunday the expansive high pressure out west centers over the
CA/NV state line, which is where the hottest temperatures will
occur. Meanwhile a low pressure system will be tracking over the
Northern Plains leaving us under the gradient. As a result winds
will increase in the afternoon and range from 25-35 mph. Where fuels
are critical fire weather conditions become a concern. On Monday
that low pressure progresses eastward, which allows the high to move
our way. Therefore temperatures increase each day and so Friday
looks to be the hottest day of the week. The other factor in this
forecast is moisture. Models are hinting that the system in the
Plains advects moisture into the Front Range. If that moisture can
get past the Divide then afternoon showers will be possible in the
mountains. As of now those chances are slight mainly starting
Tuesday, but gradually increase each day given the lack of strong
advection. By late week with the high overhead the southerly flow
may allow deeper moisture to move into the area. This moisture if it
makes it here will be competing with the hot temperatures at least
initially. That makes it difficult to get measurable precip outside
of the mountains. There are still some uncertainties regarding
whether this moisture makes it, but if the high pushes just east
of us we can tap into the better monsoon moisture, which could
occur next weekend. Confidence is higher that temperatures will
increase under the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Gusty winds up to 25 mph will continue mainly across southwest
Colorado early this evening with light terrain driven winds
after sunset and overnight. VFR conditions expected over the
next 24 hours. Winds pick up Saturday afternoon with breezy
conditions across much of the area, especially northeast Utah
and northwest Colorado.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

High pressure remains in place through the weekend resulting in warm
and dry weather. Breezy conditions are expected each afternoon with
northeast Utah and northwest Colorado seeing the strongest winds on
Saturday. As such, we went ahead and issued a Red Flag Warning for
Saturday afternoon and early evening for fire weather zones 200,
485, 486, and 487. Elsewhere elevated fire conditions will be more
localized or fuels are not considered critical. On Sunday breezy
conditions develop primarily along and south of the Interstate 70
corridor. Fuels are not considered critical in much of this area,
but fire weather conditions will remain elevated. The only exception
is in southeast Utah where fuels are approaching critical
(especially zone 491). We will continue to monitor this area
for fire weather concerns on Sunday.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for COZ200.
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ485>487.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...MDA
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT