667
FXUS65 KGJT 070603
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1203 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, warm, sunny, and breezy conditions will continue Sunday.

- Fire Weather Watch in effect Sunday afternoon/evening for
  southeast Utah and a portion of southwest Colorado.

- Latest models indicated that the break in monsoon activity
  will persist through the week ahead, though some moisture
  spreads into the area from the edges of the high centered
  over the West later in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Updated headlines to let the Red Flag Warning expire at 9 pm
this evening as winds have decreased and relative humidities are
beginning to recover. Fire Weather Watch still remains in effect
for Sunday afternoon and evening for southeast Utah and portions
of southwest Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The weather pattern features a ridge of high pressure over the
West Coast and a long wave trough over the center of the U.S.
this afternoon. Consequently, dry air will continue to move
over the region tonight resulting in few clouds and no chance
for precipitation. On Sunday, a short wave mid-level trough
moving southeastward across the northern Rockies and northern
High Plains brushes Colorado`s northern and central Continental
Divide mountains bringing a chance for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms for those areas during the afternoon
and evening. In addition, this disturbance will bring breezy
afternoon/evening winds with the strongest winds across the
south. Afternoon highs are expected to be near normal with lows
tonight and Sunday night just a bit below seasonal norms.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The surface high currently stationed off the California coast
will slowly build west towards the forecast area next week. As
it does temperatures will warm above normal. Valley locations
receive the burnt of the heat with afternoon temperatures rising
to 5-10 degrees warmer than typically seen in the first half of
July. Precipitation chances will remain hard to come by as
well. We`ve been monitoring the potential for moisture advection
into the area this coming week, but recent trends do not look
favorable. The GEFS and ECMWF ensembles do show PWATs increasing
by Tuesday into Wednesday, but even so they are projected to
remain below normal for this time of year. A few showers and
storms may form each afternoon in the San Juans come mid-week
and beyond (20-40% chance), but beyond that most locations will
likely remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions will remain in place for the next 24 hours. Even
so, we`ll see few to scattered skies in the afternoon. Gusty
winds will also materialize again this afternoon with gusts of
20 to 30 kts being common.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Red Flag Warnings continue through 9 PM this evening for
northeast and east-central Utah and northwest Colorado when
winds decrease and relative humidity begins to recover.

On Sunday, breezy conditions are expected to redevelop during
the afternoon and continue into the evening. However, the
stronger winds shift south of the I-70 corridor. Based on winds
and low relative humidity, issued a Fire Weather Watch for
southeast Utah and a portion of southwest Colorado. NFDRS was
utilized in lieu of Colorado Fuels Status to pin down fire
danger for southwest Colorado.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for COZ207.
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for UTZ490-491.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT