207
FXUS65 KGJT 232058
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
258 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions will stick with us through
  tomorrow, as dry surface levels and gusty southwest winds
  remain across the northern and central portions of the area.

- Potential for storms increases on Tuesday and Wednesday across
  the southern and central Colorado mountains with more of a
  gusty wind and lightning threat than wetting rain.

- Above normal heat and potential for fire weather returns late
  this week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Clouds are beginning to develop along the mountains this afternoon
as southeastern portions of our CWA are starting to see some mild
mid-level moisture move in from the south. Overall though, we are
still running drier than normal with the 12 UTC Grand Junction
sounding depicting PWAT under 0.35 inches, about 25% of normal.
Combining the dry conditions with another day of gusts expected to
exceed 25 mph, and up to 40 mph in some places, we are facing more
Red Flag Warnings across west-central Colorado until 8pm.

Visible on water vapor imagery this afternoon is a relatively potent
stream of moisture transporting across west Texas and through the
Central Plains. Deterministic models suggest upper-level flow will
transition from southwesterly to more southerly over the next couple
days which would advect this moisture more directly towards the
Rockies. It`s unlikely that we will experience the bulk of this
strong moisture transport, but locations around the San Juans
and possibly the Park Range are sitting around 40-50%
probabilities of precipitation on Tuesday. To note, with this
most recent forecast update, our PoP`s have decreased slightly.
CAM`s are a little more optimistic with the potential for
showers, though most maintain confidence in the isolated nature
of these storms. If nothing else, the southeastern corner of our
CWA will benefit from a moister environment that should soothe
fire weather conditions at least through the short-term period.
As for the rest of our region, critical fire weather conditions
remain in place as the environment should stay dry and gusty.
Most valleys and some higher elevation areas north of I-70 are
thus in Red Flag Warnings from 11am to 8pm tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

With troughing in place over the Great Basin and high pressure to
the east, centered over Tennessee and Kentucky, a monsoonal-like tap
of moisture will be making its way northward through New Mexico and
into Colorado. With this synoptic setup, the moisture plume will be
shunted a bit further east than we`d like to see, favoring areas
along the Divide. The southern Divide area will see the best of the
moisture plume, and therefore the highest chances of showers or
thunderstorms forming over the terrain in the afternoon. And while
there is a chance of wetting rain in this area, it`s pretty low at
10-15%. Rather, the main concerns will be gusty outflow winds and
dry lightning.

This moisture plume moves well east of the Divide by Thursday, with
eastern Utah and western Colorado returning to sunny skies and
drier, quieter conditions. Temperatures will gradually start to warm
at this point, with Thursday running a few degrees above normal, but
reaching 5-10 degrees above normal by Saturday. So at this point we
have the Hot, and we have the Dry. A quick moving wave on Friday
will bump winds up just enough that we`ll have the Windy, bringing a
brief return to critical fire weather conditions. Ridging builds in
overhead by Sunday, cranking up the heat but driving down the winds.
Critical fire weather conditions will be localized if anything,
Saturday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Winds will be less strong today, although still gusty. Westerly
to southwesterly winds with gusts of 20-25 knots are expected.
Otherwise, skies will remain mostly clear and VFR conditions
will prevail. Increasing cloud cover is expected tonight along
the central and southern Divide, impacting KDRO and KGUC as
moisture moves up from the south.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue through
this evening, and pick back up once more tomorrow afternoon,
although weaker winds will limit the extent somewhat. Moisture
begins to move north along the Divide tomorrow, bringing a return of
shower and storm chances. The chance of wetting rain is low, and the
main concerns are wind and lightning. Dry weather with above normal
temperatures then return late week into the weekend.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ200-202-
     203-205-290.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ203-205-
     290-292.
UT...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for UTZ486-487-
     490.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...BGB