599
FXUS65 KGJT 071140
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
540 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warnings have been issued for southeast Utah and
  southwest Colorado today. Winds will gust 20-30 mph around the
  region.

- Warm and dry conditions are expected to persist this week for
  much of the West Slope, with temperatures nudging up midweek.

- Some moisture returns later this week for the southern
  mountains. Confidence is low in measurable rainfall and extent
  of areal coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 422 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The persistent ridge anchored over the West will keep us locked in
the warm and dry air mass for another day. A few clouds spilling
over the front of the ridge might be spotted along the Continental
Divide this afternoon, but precipitation concerns are quickly muted
by the dry boundary layer conditions in place. Winds aloft soften
some today, but should remain strong enough to mix down another
day`s worth of 20-30 mph gusts around the region. The Fire Weather
Watch for southeast Utah and southwest Colorado has been upgraded to
a Red Flag Warning. Afternoon highs will nudge up in our
deserts,where triple digits return today, but eastward things will
look pretty similar to Saturday with low valleys around 90 and
mountain towns around 80. Winds aloft ease up Monday as the trough
on the Great Plains pulls eastward with the tropical storm remnants
working inland. Lighter winds should keep us out of critical fire
weather conditions on the wind speed side of the equation. However,
warm and dry conditions remain in place with relative humidities in
the 10-15 percent range Monday afternoon. A weak pulse of moisture
might penetrate the southern edge of our Continental Divide Monday
afternoon. This appears to be a model artifact of the wraparound,
easterly flow on the remnants of Beryl. I think a few clouds are
within reason here, but precipitation chances remain low.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 422 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The persistent area of high pressure will have set up over Las Vegas
and doesn`t look to move much at all through much of the long term
period. While areas to our east will have to deal with Beryl and her
remnants as she tracks across central portions of the US, we`ll have
sun, sun, and a bit more sun with the usual afternoon breezes. While
it`s been warm around here lately, the real heat starts to build in
Tuesday and continues into the weekend. Triple digits over central
and SE Utah Tuesday move into the Grand Valley Wednesday while
elsewhere highs reach anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal
normals.

Some moisture does try to sneak northward under the high midweek
onwards. This is reflected in the NBM with some chances (still at 20
to 40%) for a few showers and storms over the San Juans and up into
the central mountains each afternoon heading into the weekend. Don`t
expect coverage to be all that great as daytime heating will be the
main trigger for any convection that does fire. By Saturday, the
center of high pressure is progged to be over central Colorado and
this looks to open the door for moisture to finally start moving
into the region thanks to southerly flow. Models and the NBM like
this idea as convection is forecast to increase across the area.
This far out we`ll wait and see...fingers crossed.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A few scattered clouds will be found along the Continental
Divide today, but mostly clear skies and VFR conditions prevail
for another TAF period. Winds will gust 20-30 mph around the
region today and then subside after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 422 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Critical fire weather conditions develop this morning across
southeast Utah and southwest Colorado thanks to low relative
humidities and a deeply mixed atmosphere. Winds will slacken
late this evening enough to move us back above the critical
fire weather thresholds.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     COZ207.
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     UTZ490-491.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT