Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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943 FXUS65 KGJT 070327 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 927 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry, warm, sunny, and breezy conditions will continue Sunday. - Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for northeast and east- central Utah and northwest Colorado. - Fire Weather Watch in effect Sunday afternoon/evening for southeast Utah and a portion of southwest Colorado. - Latest models indicated that the break in monsoon activity will persist through the week ahead, though some moisture spreads into the area from the edges of the high centered over the West later in the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 925 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Updated headlines to let the Red Flag Warning expire at 9 pm this evening as winds have decreased and relative humidities are beginning to recover. Fire Weather Watch still remains in effect for Sunday afternoon and evening for southeast Utah and portions of southwest Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The weather pattern features a ridge of high pressure over the West Coast and a long wave trough over the center of the U.S. this afternoon. Consequently, dry air will continue to move over the region tonight resulting in few clouds and no chance for precipitation. On Sunday, a short wave mid-level trough moving southeastward across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains brushes Colorado`s northern and central Continental Divide mountains bringing a chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for those areas during the afternoon and evening. In addition, this disturbance will bring breezy afternoon/evening winds with the strongest winds across the south. Afternoon highs are expected to be near normal with lows tonight and Sunday night just a bit below seasonal norms. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The surface high currently stationed off the California coast will slowly build west towards the forecast area next week. As it does temperatures will warm above normal. Valley locations receive the burnt of the heat with afternoon temperatures rising to 5-10 degrees warmer than typically seen in the first half of July. Precipitation chances will remain hard to come by as well. We`ve been monitoring the potential for moisture advection into the area this coming week, but recent trends do not look favorable. The GEFS and ECMWF ensembles do show PWATs increasing by Tuesday into Wednesday, but even so they are projected to remain below normal for this time of year. A few showers and storms may form each afternoon in the San Juans come mid-week and beyond (20-40% chance), but beyond that most locations will likely remain dry. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 517 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The stronger, gusty winds we`ve seen through the afternoon at many locations will continue through the next 3 or so hours, before dropping after sunset. Winds after this point will either start to follow typical terrain driven drainage patterns, or else become light and variable. Skies are expected to remain clear through the period. Stronger, gusty winds will return again tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Red Flag Warnings continue through 9 PM this evening for northeast and east-central Utah and northwest Colorado when winds decrease and relative humidity begins to recover. On Sunday, breezy conditions are expected to redevelop during the afternoon and continue into the evening. However, the stronger winds shift south of the I-70 corridor. Based on winds and low relative humidity, issued a Fire Weather Watch for southeast Utah and a portion of southwest Colorado. NFDRS was utilized in lieu of Colorado Fuels Status to pin down fire danger for southwest Colorado. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for COZ207. UT...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for UTZ490-491. && $$ UPDATE...MDA SHORT TERM...NL LONG TERM...KAA AVIATION...TGJT FIRE WEATHER...TGJT