520
FXUS63 KGID 070100
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
800 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong storms will be possible this evening with half
  inch hail and 50 mph wind gusts, but widespread severe
  weather threat has ended.

- A few strong storms will be possible again across the local
  area during the daytime hours on Sunday, although severe
  weather is unlikely. Chances for thunderstorms should rapidly
  diminish during the early to mid evening hours tomorrow.

- Mostly dry conditions expected next week with just a small
  chance for thunderstorms Wednesday.

- Temperatures will start off the week on the cooler side of
  normal with a gradual climb back into the 90s for the end of
  next week and into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 734 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

An active afternoon of weather as as upper level disturbance
sparked widespread strong to severe thunderstorms across the
local area. A line of redevelopment on the backside of these
storms is noted along I-80 this evening, but is expected to
remain sub-severe and transitory...pushing eastward and out of
the local area by late evening. Could see a few strong storms
also reach the local area from development across the high
plains this evening, but again, severe weather does not appear
likely with this activity either.

For Sunday...expect yet another upper level disturbance to track
across the local area in the longwave trough, sparking
additional showers and thunderstorms across the region. While
some of the mesoscale models bring a resurgence in activity
prior to dawn - possibly associated with the high plains
convection this evening, think the main disturbance/forcing
will mostly be a daytime event as this next wave is still well
to our northwest across Montana this evening. This would be more
in line with the NAM and global models which bring this
disturbance across the local area during the daytime hours
Sunday. Either way, environmental conditions do not appear
favorable for widespread severe weather, and outside a few
strong storms, severe weather is not anticipated and the local
area remains only in an area of general thunder from SPC.

Behind this next disturbance, a nice start to the week is
anticipated with high temperatures mainly in the lower 80s along
with mostly sunny skies. As the upper level ridge then builds
across the west coast, temperatures locally will also begin to
climb, with a return to above normal temperatures expected by
the end of the week. In addition, there will be a small chance
for thunderstorms again on Wednesday with a weak disturbance in
the resultant northerly flow, but this has trended down in the
past 24 hours, and most location will likely remain dry over the
course of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

An area of SHRAs and TSRAs has developed upstream of the
terminals the past hour. Expect these storms to impact both TAF
sites through around 07/02Z...with improving conditions
expected thereafter. Behind this line of storms, only some
scattered mid level clouds are anticipated for the remainder of
the night, with another disturbance focused mainly south of the
terminals expected to bring a possible VCTS along with MVFR CIGS
for much of the day beginning around 07/12Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi