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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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092 FXUS63 KGID 070542 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1242 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong storms will be possible this evening with half inch hail and 50 mph wind gusts, but widespread severe weather threat has ended. - A few strong storms will be possible again across the local area during the daytime hours on Sunday, although severe weather is unlikely. Chances for thunderstorms should rapidly diminish during the early to mid evening hours tomorrow. - Mostly dry conditions expected next week with just a small chance for thunderstorms Wednesday. - Temperatures will start off the week on the cooler side of normal with a gradual climb back into the 90s for the end of next week and into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 734 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 An active afternoon of weather as as upper level disturbance sparked widespread strong to severe thunderstorms across the local area. A line of redevelopment on the backside of these storms is noted along I-80 this evening, but is expected to remain sub-severe and transitory...pushing eastward and out of the local area by late evening. Could see a few strong storms also reach the local area from development across the high plains this evening, but again, severe weather does not appear likely with this activity either. For Sunday...expect yet another upper level disturbance to track across the local area in the longwave trough, sparking additional showers and thunderstorms across the region. While some of the mesoscale models bring a resurgence in activity prior to dawn - possibly associated with the high plains convection this evening, think the main disturbance/forcing will mostly be a daytime event as this next wave is still well to our northwest across Montana this evening. This would be more in line with the NAM and global models which bring this disturbance across the local area during the daytime hours Sunday. Either way, environmental conditions do not appear favorable for widespread severe weather, and outside a few strong storms, severe weather is not anticipated and the local area remains only in an area of general thunder from SPC. Behind this next disturbance, a nice start to the week is anticipated with high temperatures mainly in the lower 80s along with mostly sunny skies. As the upper level ridge then builds across the west coast, temperatures locally will also begin to climb, with a return to above normal temperatures expected by the end of the week. In addition, there will be a small chance for thunderstorms again on Wednesday with a weak disturbance in the resultant northerly flow, but this has trended down in the past 24 hours, and most location will likely remain dry over the course of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Winds will generally be light and somewhat variable. A mostly northerly direction is expected by 12z. MVFR ceilings will likely impact the terminals beginning later tonight but the timing is uncertain. There is also some uncertainty as to how long the low ceilings will remain. Some models keep the low ceilings in through most of the period. Showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, may impact the terminals beginning later tonight. The timing on any convection is also uncertain. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Schuldt