238
FXUS63 KGID 271739
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flooding from Wed night-Thurs AM thunderstorm activity
  continues to impact parts of south central Nebraska. It may
  take several days for some of the most impacted areas to
  completely improve. Please see the latest flood
  warning/advisory statements for additional information.

- Patchy fog continues through the mid-morning hours, visibility
  below 1 mile possible in localized areas.

- Low chance for thunderstorms across northwestern portions of
  the area tonight (15-20%) and Saturday night (15-35%), a
  marginally severe gust can`t be ruled out.

- Heat index values around 100 degrees expected Saturday.

- More widespread chances for thunderstorms are expected Sunday
  afternoon/evening. Gusts around 60mph will be possible with
  these storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Today and Tonight...

Temperatures this morning are sitting in the 60s with light winds.
Patchy fog has developed across mainly northeastern portions of the
area. While widespread dense fog is not expected, localized areas
with visibility below 1 mile will be possible at times. Fog will
dissipate by the mid morning hours, resulting in mostly sunny skies.
Highs today will climb into the 90s. Heat index values top out just
shy of 100 degrees today due to the combination of temperatures in
the 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the Nebraska panhandle
during the late afternoon-evening hours, forming into a cluster or
an MCS as they move east. The resultant MCS is not expected to reach
far northwestern portions of the area until the late evening-early
overnight hours when convective inhibition is increasing. Given
nebulous forcing, models vary in how organized/strong storms will
be, as well as how far east storms make it before dissipating. If
storms do make it into the forecast area, they will be on the
downtrend due to increasing inhibition, but a marginally severe wind
gust can`t be ruled out. Overall, far northwestern portions of the
area (Lexington to Fullerton) have the highest chance (15-20%) to
see storms this evening/night.

Saturday...

Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the forecast period as highs
soar into the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values will top out
around 100 degrees, so those with outdoor activities will want to
stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade. Thunderstorm chances
return to the area Saturday evening/night as storms that develop
along a cold front in west-central Nebraska move into the area.
Similar to tonight/Friday, these storms are expected to be on a
downtrend given increasing inhibition, but the storms could produce
a marginally severe gust before ultimately dissipating.

Sunday...

A cold front will sit across central portions of the area on
Saturday. South of the front, highs in the 90s are expected with
highs in the 80s north of the front. By the afternoon hours, robust
instability will be in place over the area as SBCAPE values climb
above 4000 J/Kg. This will support rapid thunderstorm development
along the cold front late Sunday afternoon. Shear will be fairy
weak, around 25kts, which will keep a limit on the severe threat
despite the instability. Still, given the instability and "enough"
shear, damaging wind gusts will be possible with thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon/evening.

Monday Onwards...

Troughing deepens over the upper midwest early next week, placing
the area under zonal-weakly northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures
will be cooler, near their climatological normals in the mid to
upper 80s. Scattered, low probability chances for showers/storms
continue through the end of the forecast period. Storms would be
most likely during the evening and overnight hours, though any
details on these chances will become clearer as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Winds will generally range from the southeast to south or south
southwest. Wind gusts up to around 20 knots are possible this
afternoon and again late tomorrow morning. Low ceilings are
possible beginning around 10z and continuing until around 16z
Saturday but confidence is low at this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Schuldt