Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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402 FXUS63 KGID 012144 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 444 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon, with all forms of severe weather possible. These storms should eventually merge this evening with a transition to mainly a wind threat after dark. Areas north and east of the Tri-cities could see rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches resulting in potential flooding. - Heat index values have climbed over 100 across areas south of the warm front this afternoon, and should fill in northward across much of the remaining advisory area over the next few hours. Heat concerns should diminish by mid-evening. - A cold front will bring northerly winds and mild temperatures to the area Tuesday, slowly crossing the local area through the daytime hours. A few strong to severe storms will be possible near and to the south of this front Tuesday PM. - Another round of more widespread thunderstorms, some of which could be severe, is anticipated Wednesday evening. - The 4th of July is looking fairly pleasant with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to the north and mid to upper 80s across north central Kansas. Dry weather is expect for the late afternoon through evening hours Thursday. - Near to below normal temperatures with various small chances for precipitation expected through the remainder of the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A warm front is lifting north across the region this afternoon. Ahead of this front, low clouds and stratus have held temperatures down in the 70s, while temperatures have spiked to the south, with heat index values climbing above 100 the past couple of hours across north central Kansas. Where skies have remained clear, instability has grown the past few hours, and a few storms are starting to develop across northwestern Kansas. Given the shear associated with the warm front, these storms could rapidly turn severe as they reach our area, and a tornado watch is now in effect for all of south central Nebraska through 10 PM. Later in the evening, as the storms merge and develop into a line, expect the threat to transition to strong winds, with thunderstorm wind gusts up to 70 mph possible with the stronger storms. In addition to the chance for severe weather this evening, some models have a secondary cluster of thunderstorms developing across the Panhandle of Nebraska with a cold front and crossing the area overnight, with the focus of the heaviest precipitation mainly east of the Tri-Cities. If this develops, these areas could see some significant rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches from these multiple rounds of precipitation, potentially resulting in localized flooding, and flood watch is also in effect for several Nebraska counties mainly east of Highway 281 from 7 PM this evening through 7 AM Tuesday morning. As the aforementioned cold front stretches across the southern portions of our area on Tuesday, could see additional storm development mainly southeast of the Tri-Cities during the afternoon hours, some of which will have the potential to be strong to severe. This front should then sag further south on Wednesday, with an upper level disturbance forecast to impact the local area Wednesday night. This could bring some fairly widepsread precipitation to the area again Wednesday night, along with a small potential for some severe weather, especially for areas west of Highway 281. Thereafter the upper level flow will remain fairly active...with multiple disturbances embedded in seasonably cool northwesterly flow impacting the local area through next weekend. This will result in generally near to below normal temperatures each afternoon along with off and on again small chances for addition thunderstorm activity. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Low level stratus can be seen eroding across north central Kansas early this afternoon on satellite imagery. This trend is forecast to continue over the next few hours, with improving conditions at both terminals anticipated by 01/21Z-01/22Z. As conditions improve, thunderstorms are expected to develop west/southwest of the terminals, spreading east during the late afternoon through evening hours. While both terminals will likely be impacted by a period of +TSRAs along with the potential for some strong thunderstorm wind gusts and even severe weather, kept only a mention of a VCTS for the time being and will need to amend TAFs to include the stronger storms once they develop and timing becomes more clear. Contemplated a 6 hour period of LLWS at the terminals after midnight, but ultimately opted to disregard as the agreement was not great in model data and confidence was low. Thunderstorm chances should shift east and diminish at the terminals around 02/07-08Z...with a shift to northerly winds anticipated behind a cold front during the morning hours Tuesday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ072-082-083. Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning for NEZ040-041-047>049-063-064. KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Rossi