105
FXUS63 KGID 051759
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1259 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a threat of strong to severe storms with large
  hail and damaging winds Saturday afternoon and evening.

- There are no major heat concerns for the next 7 days with
  maximum heat index values in the low 90s for portions of the
  area.

- High temperatures will generally range from the mid 70s to low
  90s with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper level trough is centered over the upper Midwest and extends
over Nebraska and Kansas. Winds are light out of the west to
northwest with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Winds will increase out of the northwest to north by this afternoon
as a surface high approaches the area. This will allow for
temperatures to stay cooler today with highs similar to yesterday
ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s. There will be some slight (15%
to around 25%) chances of rain and thunderstorms today as a
shortwave trough moves over the area. Light, southwest winds will be
across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas
tonight with low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.

Saturday and Saturday night...

A broad upper trough will be across most of the country on Saturday.
A surface trough will strengthen across eastern Colorado and western
Kansas. This will result in increasing southerly winds across most
of the forecast area on Saturday. Temperatures will be on a warming
trend on Saturday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower
90s. A shortwave will move over the area on Saturday with storm
chances increasing up to around 50%. Fairly high instability and
wind shear will combine with the increase in upper lift from the
shortwave and allow for possible strong to severe storms Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening. The Storm Prediction Center has
most of the forecast area in a slight risk for severe storms on
Saturday. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in the mid 50s to
mid 60s.

Sunday through Monday night...

The upper trough digs over the central part of the country on
Sunday. An upper level shortwave will move over the area resulting
in continued chances (up to near 70%) of showers and thunderstorms
on Sunday. This shortwave will also bring in a cold front with high
temperatures on Sunday expected to be in the mid to upper 70s. Low
temperatures Sunday night will be in the mid 50s to low 60s. The
upper trough will still be over the central Plains on Monday with
northerly winds across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas. Temperatures are expected to warm up a little on
Monday from the previous day with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
with clearing skies. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the
mid 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday through Thursday night...

The upper trough will begin to move east of the area on Tuesday with
upper ridging over the western part of the country. High
temperatures on Tuesday are expected to mostly be in the 80s across
the area. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the upper 50s to
mid 60s across south central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas. The area will generally be between the upper trough and
upper ridge on Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday are
expected to be slightly warmer than the previous day. Low
temperatures Wednesday night will be similar to the previous night.
Slight chances (15% to 20%) of showers and thunderstorms will be
present Tuesday night through Wednesday night as upper level
disturbances move over the area. Temperatures on Thursday will be
similar to the previous day, but winds will be out of the south. Low
temperatures Thursday night are expected to be in the low to mid 60s
with southerly winds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with some
mid-level clouds and maybe a sprinkle over the next few
hours...with dry conditions thereafter. Breezy northwesterly
winds are expected to continue into the early evening hours,
before winds decouple and light winds are forecast through the
overnight hours. Winds will shift and become more southerly near
10 KTS during the morning hours Saturday, before an upper level
disturbance sparks a line of strong to severe storms northwest
of the area during the early afternoon hours, potentially
impacting both terminals mid-late afternoon Saturday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Rossi