990
FXUS63 KGID 052334
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
634 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated shower or weak thunderstorms is possible across
  the area this afternoon. Any showers or storms that do develop
  should dissipate before sunset.

- An upper level disturbance is expected to steer a line of
  strong to severe thunderstorms across the local area Saturday
  afternoon into the early evening hours. Golf ball sized hail
  and 60 mph wind gusts will be possible with the strongest
  storms.

- Three is a chance for a marginally severe storm or two across
  north central Kansas on Sunday. Widespread severe weather is
  not anticipated.

- Less active weather is anticipated across the local area next
  week, with only spotty small chances for thunderstorms
  Tuesday evening through Wednesday night. Most areas will
  remain dry. In addition, temperatures will remain seasonably
  mild, with afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s
  each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A weak disturbance moving across the area today sparked a few
light showers/sprinkles across the area. These showers have
struggled to get going, although an isolated non-severe
thunderstorm remains possible through the late afternoon hours
when surface instability should begin to wane.

A much stronger upper level disturbance can be seen in water
vapor imagery across north central Montana this afternoon. This
disturbance is forecast to rapidly track southeast over the next
18-24 hours, helping provide forcing for line of strong to
severe storms across the local area Saturday afternoon. Given
the timing of this upper level disturbance, storms could get
firing rather early in the day on Saturday, with the anticipated
line of storms developing as early as noon across our north
transitioning southeastward through the afternoon hours. Models
have come into much better agreement with timing of this
disturbance over the past 12 hours, focusing earlier in the day
with the main threats being large hail (elevated storms with
decent deep layered shear) and 60 mph wind gusts. Given the more
progressive nature of these storms, may have hung onto pops too
long into the evening hours Saturday, but there could be some
non-severe trailing activity into the overnight hours.

Yet another upper level disturbance in the longwave trough is
anticipated to cross the area on Sunday bringing another round
of thunderstorms. That said, with the better shear anticipated
further south on Sunday and lower available instability, the
strongest storms should be contained to our north central
Kansas counties Sunday afternoon.

Behind Sundays system, the upper level ridge across the
southwest is expected to amplify resulting in northwesterly flow
aloft, helping to keep temperatures on the cool side of normal
to start the week. The next weak disturbance is the expected
mid-week, but overall, this should only result in very small and
spotty chances for thunderstorms during the Tuesday evening
through Wednesday night time period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, but showers
and thunderstorms will move across the TAF sites Saturday
afternoon and early evening.

WNW winds will become light and variable this evening through
the overnight hours, with FEW to SCT clouds at 7-10k ft AGL,
although there may be intermittent clear periods, especially
overnight tonight. With an approaching weather system, winds
will still be somewhat variable but generally southerly at 5-7
kts around 15Z Saturday morning. Around 17-18Z, thunderstorms
moving from NW to SE are expected to move into the vicinity of
the TAF sites, with likely -TSRA from approximately 06/20Z to
around the end of the TAF period. Expect BKN CIGS at 5-7k ft AGL
as storms approach and move through.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Hickford