Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
033 FXUS63 KGID 060601 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 101 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated shower or weak thunderstorms is possible across the area this afternoon. Any showers or storms that do develop should dissipate before sunset. - An upper level disturbance is expected to steer a line of strong to severe thunderstorms across the local area Saturday afternoon into the early evening hours. Golf ball sized hail and 60 mph wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. - Three is a chance for a marginally severe storm or two across north central Kansas on Sunday. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. - Less active weather is anticipated across the local area next week, with only spotty small chances for thunderstorms Tuesday evening through Wednesday night. Most areas will remain dry. In addition, temperatures will remain seasonably mild, with afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A weak disturbance moving across the area today sparked a few light showers/sprinkles across the area. These showers have struggled to get going, although an isolated non-severe thunderstorm remains possible through the late afternoon hours when surface instability should begin to wane. A much stronger upper level disturbance can be seen in water vapor imagery across north central Montana this afternoon. This disturbance is forecast to rapidly track southeast over the next 18-24 hours, helping provide forcing for line of strong to severe storms across the local area Saturday afternoon. Given the timing of this upper level disturbance, storms could get firing rather early in the day on Saturday, with the anticipated line of storms developing as early as noon across our north transitioning southeastward through the afternoon hours. Models have come into much better agreement with timing of this disturbance over the past 12 hours, focusing earlier in the day with the main threats being large hail (elevated storms with decent deep layered shear) and 60 mph wind gusts. Given the more progressive nature of these storms, may have hung onto pops too long into the evening hours Saturday, but there could be some non-severe trailing activity into the overnight hours. Yet another upper level disturbance in the longwave trough is anticipated to cross the area on Sunday bringing another round of thunderstorms. That said, with the better shear anticipated further south on Sunday and lower available instability, the strongest storms should be contained to our north central Kansas counties Sunday afternoon. Behind Sundays system, the upper level ridge across the southwest is expected to amplify resulting in northwesterly flow aloft, helping to keep temperatures on the cool side of normal to start the week. The next weak disturbance is the expected mid-week, but overall, this should only result in very small and spotty chances for thunderstorms during the Tuesday evening through Wednesday night time period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Winds will generally be out of the southwest then switch to the south by 15z. Winds will increase in strength by 21z. Showers and storms will likely impact the area by 00z. There is some uncertainty in regards to location and timing of storms. MVFR ceilings may impact the terminals by 00z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Schuldt