335
FXUS65 KGGW 050853
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
253 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Expect scattered thunderstorms through this weekend, especially
  during the afternoon and evening hours.

- Hot and dry conditions will develop next week with an upper
  level ridging setting up.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Broad upper trough remains over central Canada with shortwaves
rotating through the northern plains over the weekend. This will
continue the daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Although
any storm may produce brief downpours, the lack of shear is expected
to limit the potential for sustained updrafts. Thus, mostly ordinary
cell convection is expected.

Ensembles continue to support the west coast ridge becoming established
over the CONUS next week. This suggests that the pattern will shift
toward drier weather as temperatures rise to above normal.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

While confidence is low on precise timing and placement of any
thunderstorms, confidence is high on an overall active weather
pattern remaining in place through the weekend with growing
confidence on hot and dry weather next week. The NBM was largely
followed which captured expected trends rather well.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR - MVFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return again
around noon today and last through the afternoon and early
evening hours. These convective showers may come with brief MVFR
ceilings or visibilities if tracking directly over a taf site.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow