029
FXUS65 KGGW 061121
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
521 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Active weather will remain in place through this weekend with
 thunderstorm chances each afternoon and evening.

- Hot and dry conditions look to develop next week.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Northwest flow will continue over the region through the weekend
before the Pacific upper ridge begins building eastward. Another
weak shortwave dropping through the flow will generate showers and
thunderstorms today, lingering overnight. By Sunday the upper
trough will shift eastward enough for any storm development to be
generally near the North Dakota border.

As the ridge builds east, the dry heat dome currently impacting
the west coast will move across the Rockies with temperatures
potentially reaching 100 degrees by over portions of eastern
Montana on Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is low on exact placement and timing of individual
thunderstorms but high that an overall active weather pattern will
remain in place through this weekend. Confidence is also above
average for hot and dry weather to develop next week, with
a moderately high (50-90%) probability for temperatures reaching
95 degrees or highers on Thursday. This could be enough to
necessitate a Heat Advisory for late in the week. The NBM was
followed for the forecast with little change.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period,
though MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are briefly possible
near any organized storms this afternoon and evening.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow