346
FXUS65 KGGW 082111
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
311 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Hot and dry weather conditions are expected, with excessively
hot temperatures possible by Thursday.

2) Hot and dry weather may lead to elevated fire weather concerns
on Thursday, though light winds and green fuels may limit the
threat.

3) Isolated thunderstorms may result Thursday evening, especially
along the MT/ND border.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper ridging across the western U.S. will lead to hot and dry
weather unfolding across NE Montana this week, with the hottest
expected temperatures on Wednesday. Latest NBM shows the
probability of reaching 100 degrees at or above 50 percent along
and south of Highway 2. The need for some sort of heat related
products is becoming inevitable, especially on the heels of recent
below normal temperatures which will likely exacerbate any
impacts.

Hot and dry weather may also lead to elevated fire concerns late
week, but green fuels and light winds will keep the threat
minimized overall. Isolated thunderstorms may result Thursday
evening with a little instability over the area and CAPE around
1500 J/KG in the presence of inverted-V forecast soundings.
Additional thunderstorm chances may result over the weekend as
hotter temperatures appear here to stay.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence that temperatures will trend above normal
through the weekend. Medium confidence exists on thunderstorm
potential on Thursday. Coverage may be limited but given expected
instability and for the sake of forecast continuity have opted to
maintain pops for now.



&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across area terminals with high
pressure settling in. Expect light and variable winds.

DENSITY ALTITUDE may become a problem by Thursday when high
temperatures reach the lower 100s.



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow