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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
336 FXUS65 KGGW 040851 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 251 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Unsettled weather conditions are expected through the end of the week with frequent chances for thunderstorms. - Warmer and drier weather conditions develop across the region next week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A broad upper trough remains over central Canada with upper ridging off the west coast. The northwest flow into the northern plains will bring a series of shortwaves through the region over the next few days, driving the potential for showers and thunderstorms. This activity will be focused in the afternoon hours with peak daytime instability. For the Independence Day holiday, the greatest influence from a passing shortwave trough and low-level moisture will be near the North Dakota border where convection is more favored. A lack of shear makes gusty winds with these thunderstorms a minimal concern. Ensembles show growing support for the upper level ridge pushing eastward over the western CONUS Next week. This will lead to dry and hot weather conditions by the middle of July. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: While confidence is low on precise timing and placement of any thunderstorms, confidence is high on an overall active weather pattern remaining in place this week with growing confidence on hot and dry weather next week. The NBM was largely followed which captured expected trends rather well. && .AVIATION... VFR - MVFR. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue through this evening but will return again on Friday morning. MVFR Visibility drops may occur with any rain shower. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow