Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
464 FXUS65 KGGW 080737 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 137 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) An upper level ridge will begin bringing hot temperatures by Tuesday afternoon and lasting through the weekend. There is high (70 percent) confidence of a few locations reaching triple digits on Thursday. 2) There is low (20 percent) confidence of isolated thunderstorms popping up late Thursday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The cold pool of air aloft on the eastern side of the ridge will shift to the east, which will minimize the shower and thunderstorm activity. The ridge will build in and be at its strongest on Thursday, with triple digits expected in a few locations. Only a few models are hinting at high-based thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon, with low confidence with the location of the thunderstorms. Any storms that do occur will have an opportunity to produce a strong wind gust in regard to inverted-V model soundings from the GFS and ECMWF. The hot temps at the surface will help DCAPE values climb to over 1500 J/kg, so high rates of evaporation are expected beneath any storms. This would help strengthen downdrafts to produce gusty outflow winds. As far as hot temps go, heat safety will play a crucial role this week more than usual. There is little indication of any precipitation through the weekend. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high (100 percent) confidence that upper ridging will bring hot temperatures that will last through the weekend. There is low (20 percent) confidence of isolated thunderstorms occurring on Thursday evening. The hot conditions will be monitored for the potential of at least heat related advisory products in the coming days. -Zanker/Stoinskers && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATE: 0200Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR DISCUSSION: Benign conditions with few clouds will prevail through the cycle as high pressure builds in from the west. DENSITY ALTITUDE may become a problem by Thursday when temperatures reach up to 100+. WIND: Light and variable through the cycle. GAH && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow