255
FXUS64 KFWD 061622
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1122 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Sunday Night/

Mostly sunny and pleasant conditions prevail across North Texas at
this hour behind yesterday`s cold front. The old boundary is
draped across Central TX this morning and lower 70s dewpoints have
already crept back into our southeast counties. While synoptic
lift is generally weak across the Southern Plains this afternoon,
heating along a broadly convergent zone in Central TX should lead
to some scattered thunderstorms. This activity would mainly be
across our far southern and southeastern counties and diminish in
coverage this evening with loss of heating.

Southerly flow will return to North Texas tonight and begin to
pull moisture northward making it feel a little more humid.
Overnight lows will be several degrees warmer as well with
temperatures in the mid 70s expected.

On Sunday, North and Central TX will be between an approaching
cold front off to the north and Tropical Storm Beryl which will be
making a run at the TX coastline. This will lead to relatively
quiet conditions, although we will warm back into the mid 90s with
increasing humidity. Heat indices will again climb back above 100
degrees for most locations. By Sunday night, thunderstorms are
expected to erupt along the cold front across parts of Oklahoma
and will likely move across the Red River late overnight. Areas
north of I-20 will have the best chance for thunderstorms and some
locally heavy rainfall. Rain chances will continue through the
middle of the week with influence from the tropical system. More
details on that below...

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 425 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024/
/Sunday Through Next Friday/

Key Messages:

- Quick warm-up should push heat index values back into the
  triple digits on Sunday.

- An MCS capable of producing strong wind gusts will move
  into North Texas Sunday night into Monday morning.

- There is an increasing threat for heavy rainfall and flooding
  over portions of North and Central Texas associated with the
  landfall of Tropical Cyclone Beryl on Monday.

Details:

Southerly surface winds will begin to increase on Sunday in
response to pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies. This will
allow for a quick warm-up with afternoon temperatures climbing
into the mid and upper 90s. Diurnal heating of the moistening
boundary layer (bolstered by the tropical moisture associated with
Tropical Storm Beryl) will result in triple digit heat index
values. Though some locations are likely to flirt with Heat
Advisory criteria during peak heating, the occurrence of these
conditions is expected to be isolated and brief enough to preclude
the need for heat headlines.

The convection that will likely be ongoing across southern Kansas
and northern Oklahoma at the start of the period may only make it
as far as central Oklahoma before weakening and pushing east.
This will generally leave North and Central Texas precipitation-free
until the afternoon when the outer bands of Beryl begin moving up
from the coast. By the early evening, thunderstorms will quickly
develop along the southeastward surging cold front in Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Upscale growth is expected as these
storms progress east/southeast into North Texas overnight and
early Monday. Strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall will be the
main concerns with this activity.

Early Monday, the focus will be on the northwestern Gulf as Beryl
reaches the coast. The latest NHC forecast calls for Tropical
Storm Beryl to re-strengthen into a hurricane before making
landfall somewhere along the middle Texas coast. As the system
moves onshore, the current track arcs Beryl across the eastern
half of our domain. Initially, the greatest threat for heavy
rainfall will be east of the circulation, impacting Southeast and
eastern Central Texas. However, as Beryl progresses further
north/northeast (and becomes increasingly extratropical), the axis
of heaviest rainfall will likely begin to wrap around the
northern flank of the circulation. This will shift the flood
threat further north and west across our area. We also cannot rule
out the emergence of a localized tornado threat associated with
the rain bands moving onshore.

Rain/storm chances will persist through the end of the week as
ridging over the Intermountain West and the southern
Appalachians/Southeast maintains the position of the weakening
trough over the central CONUS. The lingering tropical moisture
should support daily chances for showers and storms. This extended
rainy period should also keep temperature seasonable or slightly
below climatological normals with highs in the upper 80s to mid
90s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR with light east-northeast winds will prevail for the next few
hours with winds becoming more southerly 5-10 kt later this
afternoon. While a few storms may develop across parts of the
region, this activity should be to the south of the major
airports. South winds and VFR will prevail through Sunday with
attention turning to approaching storms late Sunday night and a
more active period Monday through midweek thanks to the tropical
system in the Gulf.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  77  96  75  88 /   0   0   0  20  50
Waco                93  75  96  75  86 /  10   5   5   5  50
Paris               93  71  94  72  84 /   5   0   5  30  60
Denton              93  74  98  71  88 /   0   0   5  30  50
McKinney            93  73  95  73  86 /   0   0   5  20  50
Dallas              94  77  97  74  88 /   0   0   0  20  50
Terrell             92  73  95  73  86 /   5   0   5  10  50
Corsicana           93  76  97  76  87 /  10   0  10  10  50
Temple              93  75  97  76  86 /  20  10   5   5  50
Mineral Wells       93  72  97  72  89 /   0   0   0  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$