579
FXUS64 KFWD 052039
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
339 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1248 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024/
/This Afternoon through Saturday Night/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across parts of North
Texas this afternoon as an outflow boundary pushes south of the
I-20 corridor. This activity is expected to increase in coverage
through the afternoon mainly along and just north of this
boundary. Latest RAP objective analysis indicates moderate
instability with MLCAPE >2000 J/kg throughout much of our Central
TX counties which will support locally robust updrafts. While
widespread severe weather is not expected, a few strong storms
could produce some gusty winds. Farther north, widespread rainfall
continues across northwest Texas closer to the actual cold
frontal boundary where weak synoptic ascent is also present thanks
to a subtle mid level shortwave. For the remainder of the
afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will continue with the highest
chances from the Metroplex south and west. PW values near 2 inches
and generally weak wind fields suggest that locally heavy rainfall
will be possible through the afternoon and early evening. Activity
should start to diminish in coverage later this evening with loss
of heating. We`ll maintain some low PoPs through the overnight
hours given the proximity of the surface boundaries and generally
moist airmass in place.

On Saturday, the frontal boundary should sag southward into
Central TX where a re-invigoration of convection should occur
through the early afternoon as we heat up and destabilize. We`ll
show increasing PoPs into the afternoon with coverage 40-50%. High
temperatures should be held in check by continued cloud cover and
rain chances with highs topping out in the lower 90s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Next Week/

Our cold front will retreat north as a warm front on Sunday as a
shortwave trough approaches from the northwest and a lee surface
trough strengthens, with the boundary eventually stalling across
Oklahoma. This will heat things up temporarily, with afternoon
highs climbing into the mid and upper 90s. Dewpoints in the lower
70s will produce max heat index values in the 100 to 105 degree
range. A few spots may exceed 105, particularly in the southeast
where the influx of tropical moisture associated with Beryl could
make conditions exceptionally humid. At this time, however, it
looks like the localized nature and brief time-frame of these
conditions will likely preclude the need for a Heat Advisory.

For those who missed out on rainfall with the ongoing system,
more opportunities will arrive next week as aforementioned
shortwave emerges in the Plains, the front returns south as a cold
front, and Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches from the south. Rain
chances associated with the front will be mainly Sunday night
through Monday, while those associated with the tropical system
will be primarily Monday through Tuesday. This scenario is based
on the latest operational model solutions (regarding the movement
of Beryl), which match closely with the official NHC forecast.

The severe weather threat appears low at this time, though there
could be some strong winds late Sunday/early Monday as convection
initiating along the front in Oklahoma approaches, particularly if
upscale growth takes place and a cold pool develops. Heavy rain
will become the main concern as Beryl begins to interact with the
slow moving front in the Monday-Tuesday period. Eastern portions
of Central Texas will be nearest the track of Beryl and will have
the best potential of seeing heavy rain. Another thing to keep in
mind will be the potential brief spin-up tornadoes, which could
occur in rain bands where any surface instability is attained.

Showers and storms will end from west to east late Tuesday-Wednesday
as the remnants of Beryl get picked up by another shortwave
trough and carried northeast into the Mississippi Valley. Weak
troughing will linger overhead in the wake of the tropical system,
bringing near to slightly below normal temperatures and low rain
chances Wednesday through next weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1248 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Outside of convection, VFR will prevail with north-northeast winds
10 to 15 kt through tonight. At this hour, an outflow boundary is
pushing south through the D10 airspace with scattered
thunderstorms developing along and north of the boundary. We`ll
start the TAFs off with VCTS and continue a TEMPO through 20Z for -TSRA.
The bulk of the activity should start to sag southward through
the afternoon and evening. VFR cigs will likely prevail overnight
tonight with new thunderstorms developing across Central Texas on
Saturday. At this time it appears that most of the convection on
Saturday will be south of the major airports, but we`ll continue
to monitor this potential.

Dunn

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  92  77  96  75 /  20  20   0  20  30
Waco                76  92  75  95  76 /  30  40  10  10  20
Paris               71  90  71  92  71 /  20  20   0  30  40
Denton              71  92  74  96  72 /  20  20   0  20  30
McKinney            72  91  74  95  72 /  20  20   5  20  30
Dallas              76  91  76  96  75 /  20  20   5  20  30
Terrell             73  90  73  94  73 /  20  30   5  20  20
Corsicana           76  92  76  95  76 /  20  40   5  20  20
Temple              75  93  74  96  76 /  20  50  10  10  10
Mineral Wells       71  91  72  96  72 /  30  20   0  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$