077
FXUS64 KFWD 071907
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
207 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 122 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024/
/This Afternoon through Monday Night/

The short term forecast through Monday remains largely in tact
with no major changes at this time. Warm and humid conditions will
continue through the rest of the afternoon with high temperatures
topping out in the mid 90s and heat indices near 105. A complex of
thunderstorms moved across southern Oklahoma and the far southern
end of this may clip a few of our Red River counties through the
rest of the afternoon. A well defined outflow boundary is pushing
southward off of this complex and will likely spread into parts of
North Texas through the middle of the afternoon. It`s a little
uncertain if we`ll see new convection develop along this boundary,
but the atmosphere is unstable and weakly capped across North
Texas, so we can`t rule out a few isolated storms. We`ll have some
20% PoPs to account for this.

Farther south, a band of showers and thunderstorms is spreading
through southeast TX and may spread into our far southeastern
counties through the rest of the afternoon where we`ll have 20-30%
PoPs. All of this activity should be diurnally driven and a
decrease in coverage is expected after dark. As we head into
Monday, we`ll be watching a potential cluster of thunderstorms
across southwest Oklahoma spreading into North Texas late tonight
into Monday morning. Model guidance has had a little trouble
handling this potential complex and today`s outflow boundary may
make things more complicated, but we`ll generally have 30-50%
coverage late tonight into Monday morning across our northwest
counties and north of I-20.

Attention then turns to the remnants of Beryl that will be
spreading north into the area. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding
will be the main impacts in our area with rain increasing in
coverage and intensity from late morning through the afternoon and
evening. Heavy rainfall will continue into the overnight hours
Monday night before tapering off during the day Tuesday. No major
changes to forecast rainfall amounts have been made, although a
slight shift eastward was made. It still looks like the heaviest
rainfall will be along and east of I-45 across our eastern and
southeastern counties. We expanded the Flood Watch to include all
of our eastern counties through Monday night.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday through Saturday/

The remnants of Beryl will continue to move northeast away from
the region by early Tuesday with some low PoPs lingering across
our northeast counties. In its wake, northerly flow and drier air
will persist across North and Central Texas, although a gradient
of low level moisture will be present across South Texas. This
boundary will spread north late in the day and could provide a
focus for a few thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon across our
Central Texas counties.

With stronger ridging remaining both to the east and west of
Texas, we`ll remain beneath a weakness in the height fields aloft
Wednesday through the end of the week. Low level moisture will
gradually increase through the end of the week with southerly flow
returning. While more appreciable large scale forcing for ascent
will be absent, we can still expect to see scattered afternoon
showers and storms each day through Saturday with coverage
generally around 20%. Temperatures will steadily climb back into
the mid and upper 90s by Friday with heat indices back near 105
each afternoon.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 122 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail with southeast winds around 10 kt through this
afternoon. We`ll be watching an outflow boundary that is spreading
south across the Red River at this time. It`s a little uncertain
whether or not it will make it to the major airports, but if that
potential increases, then a TEMPO wind shift to the north will be
needed. There is also a low potential for a storm or two to
develop along this boundary through the afternoon.

Otherwise, winds will gradually become more easterly then
northeast late tonight into Monday as the remnants of Beryl spread
inland. This will likely be accompanied by MVFR cigs Monday
morning. Widespread rainfall is expected to start impacting the
airports around midday and continue through the late evening.
DFW/DAL will have the highest rain chances with a notable gradient
in precipitation expected farther westward. Some intermittent
gusty northeast winds to 30 kt can be expected with the rain
bands.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  85  71  90  73 /  10  70  40  10   5
Waco                75  85  70  91  72 /  10  70  40  10  10
Paris               73  83  67  86  68 /  40 100  90  30  10
Denton              72  86  68  91  69 /  10  60  40  10   5
McKinney            73  85  68  89  70 /  20  80  50  20   5
Dallas              76  87  71  91  73 /  20  70  50  20   5
Terrell             75  83  69  89  70 /  20 100  70  20   5
Corsicana           77  85  70  91  73 /  20 100  60  20  10
Temple              75  85  69  92  72 /  10  60  30  10  10
Mineral Wells       72  88  69  91  68 /   5  50  20  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for
TXZ095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

$$