790
FXUS64 KFWD 061110
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
610 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No major changes were made to the forecast after updating it with
the latest data. We did trim the PoPs further south, keeping the
mention of thunderstorms largely south of US-84 this afternoon.

Bonnette

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tonight/

This morning will start on the cool side of average for most in
the wake of yesterday`s cold front. Parts of western North Texas
will start the day 7-10 degrees below average with lows in the mid
60s while the rest of the area starts in the low to mid 70s.
Yesterday`s cold front was able to move as far south as the Hill
Country, but it will start to mix out this afternoon, then fully
wash out tonight/early Sunday morning. Unfortunately, this means
we`ll return to near seasonal norms this afternoon with highs
topping out in the low 90s.

Meager mid-level ascent around 700 mb should develop a few showers
across the area early this morning. Limited instability should
keep the threat of lightning low. Scattered showers and storms are
expected to develop this afternoon across Central Texas, mainly in
the vicinity of the surface front. All storms should end with the
loss of heating this evening.

South flow will return tonight and start to draw warm, moist air
north in advance of our next weather-maker expected to move into
the area Sunday night into Monday.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 425 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024/
/Sunday Through Next Friday/

Key Messages:

- Quick warm-up should push heat index values back into the
  triple digits on Sunday.

- An MCS capable of producing strong wind gusts will move
  into North Texas Sunday night into Monday morning.

- There is an increasing threat for heavy rainfall and flooding
  over portions of North and Central Texas associated with the
  landfall of Tropical Cyclone Beryl on Monday.

Details:

Southerly surface winds will begin to increase on Sunday in
response to pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies. This will
allow for a quick warm-up with afternoon temperatures climbing
into the mid and upper 90s. Diurnal heating of the moistening
boundary layer (bolstered by the tropical moisture associated with
Tropical Storm Beryl) will result in triple digit heat index
values. Though some locations are likely to flirt with Heat
Advisory criteria during peak heating, the occurrence of these
conditions is expected to be isolated and brief enough to preclude
the need for heat headlines.

The convection that will likely be ongoing across southern Kansas
and northern Oklahoma at the start of the period may only make it
as far as central Oklahoma before weakening and pushing east.
This will generally leave North and Central Texas precipitation-free
until the afternoon when the outer bands of Beryl begin moving up
from the coast. By the early evening, thunderstorms will quickly
develop along the southeastward surging cold front in Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Upscale growth is expected as these
storms progress east/southeast into North Texas overnight and
early Monday. Strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall will be the
main concerns with this activity.

Early Monday, the focus will be on the northwestern Gulf as Beryl
reaches the coast. The latest NHC forecast calls for Tropical
Storm Beryl to re-strengthen into a hurricane before making
landfall somewhere along the middle Texas coast. As the system
moves onshore, the current track arcs Beryl across the eastern
half of our domain. Initially, the greatest threat for heavy
rainfall will be east of the circulation, impacting Southeast and
eastern Central Texas. However, as Beryl progresses further
north/northeast (and becomes increasingly extratropical), the axis
of heaviest rainfall will likely begin to wrap around the
northern flank of the circulation. This will shift the flood
threat further north and west across our area. We also cannot rule
out the emergence of a localized tornado threat associated with
the rain bands moving onshore.

Rain/storm chances will persist through the end of the week as
ridging over the Intermountain West and the southern
Appalachians/Southeast maintains the position of the weakening
trough over the central CONUS. The lingering tropical moisture
should support daily chances for showers and storms. This extended
rainy period should also keep temperature seasonable or slightly
below climatological normals with highs in the upper 80s to mid
90s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR and light north flow will prevail this morning. A SCT to BKN
cloud deck around 10-15 kft will develop a few showers early this
morning across Central Texas. Scattered storms will develop this
afternoon, generally south of ACT. Light south flow will return
to the D10 terminals this afternoon and this evening at ACT.

There is a 20-30% chance of MVFR ceilings developing across parts
of the area late tonight/early Sunday morning. Our confidence
regarding where the ceilings will develop and how low the ceilings
will be is low at this point, therefore this detail was omitted
from the 12Z TAFs.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  78  95  74  88 /   5   0   5  30  50
Waco                93  76  95  74  86 /  20   5  10  10  50
Paris               93  72  95  71  84 /   5   0  20  40  60
Denton              93  75  96  72  88 /   0   0   5  40  50
McKinney            93  74  95  72  86 /   5   0  10  40  50
Dallas              94  78  97  74  88 /   5   0   5  30  50
Terrell             92  74  94  73  86 /   5   0  10  30  50
Corsicana           93  76  95  76  87 /  20   0  20  20  50
Temple              93  75  96  74  86 /  20   5  10  10  50
Mineral Wells       93  73  95  71  89 /   5   0   0  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$