948
FXUS64 KFWD 071107
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
607 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Though guidance has continued to struggle with the ongoing complex
of thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma this morning, we are
finally beginning to see signs of weakening as the convection
moves into slightly less favorable instability. Though the current
track should keep the remnants of this complex north of the Red
River, low PoPs (<20%) have been introduced to the far
northeastern corner of our domain as the cells on the
southern/southwestern flank of the complex may clip this area
later this morning. All other forecast trends discussed below
remain on track, and no significant adjustments were needed with
this morning`s update.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tonight/

Today`s warm-up will be preceded by a seasonably warm, humid, and
convection-free night across North and Central Texas.
Temperatures will settle into the lower 70s by daybreak, though
some urban areas are likely to hover closer to the mid/upper 70s.
The diffuse remnants of yesterday`s stationary boundary in the
Hill Country has now washed out allowing southerly flow to return.
A slight uptick in wind speeds is expected later today in
response to the developing surface low near the CO-OK-KS border
which will increase the surface pressure gradient across the
state.

Supported by warm-air advection, the loosely organized cluster of
thunderstorms in northwestern Oklahoma is taking on a more
southeastward propagation at this hour. These storms are expected
to eventually succumb to the weakening of the low-level jet later
this morning, leading to a gradual weakening before the convection
reaches southern Oklahoma. By late morning/early afternoon,
Beryls rain bands will begin lashing the coast, progressively
reaching further inland through the afternoon and evening ahead of
its eventual landfall early Monday. Apart from these northward
sweeping rain bands, most of North and Central Texas will remain
dry today, with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s
and triple digit peak heat index values. Though several locations
east of I-35 may see heat indices reach or exceed 105 degrees this
afternoon, we will not be issuing a Heat Advisory as this will be
the only day that this is expected to occur. As a reminder a Heat
Advisory is issued when the maximum heat index values are expected
to reach 105 degrees or higher for two consecutive days OR the
temperature is expected to reach 103 degrees or higher or two
consecutive days.

By this afternoon, a line of thunderstorms developing along an
approaching cold front is expected to grow upscale as storm
interactions occur and a stronger cold pool develops through the
evening. The resulting MCS will likely move across the Red River
during the pre-dawn hours on Monday. Areas near and north of the
I-20 corridor will have the best chance for thunderstorms with the
potential for strong wind gusts. With tropical moisture streaming
northward across the region any convection will be capable of
producing heavy downpours which could lead to quickly emerging
flood issues.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 445 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024/
/Monday Onward/

Key messages:

- Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to move across the southeastern
  part of our forecast area Monday afternoon and night. Steady
  moderate to heavy rain will begin Monday morning and exit the
  area Tuesday morning.

- The main impact for our area will be heavy rainfall and
  flooding for the areas near the track of Beryl. A Flood Watch
  has been issued for parts of eastern North and Central Texas.

      - 4-7" of rain with localized areas up to 10" are forecast
        for the eastern/southeastern parts of our forecast area.

      - Those within the flood watch should take action to prepare
        for potential flooding today.

- 20-30 mph winds with gusts up to 40 mph will be possible for
  portions of Milam, Robertson, Leon, Freestone, Anderson, and
  perhaps Henderson counties Monday afternoon and evening. The
  remainder of the area will be gusty, but below our Wind Advisory
  criteria.

Discussion:
Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to strengthen to a Hurricane and
make landfall near/east of Matagorda early Monday morning. It
should track north and weaken to a Tropical Storm as it moves
into the far southeastern portions of our forecast area Monday
afternoon. It will continue north-northeast Monday evening,
further weakening to a Tropical Depression before moving into
Arkansas Monday night.

As the precipitation contracts toward the center of Beryl tonight,
the first wave of rain is expected to move into our forecast area
before sunrise Monday. Once the rain moves in, it is not expected
to stop until the center of the storm moves through. Areas north
and east of the low pressure circulation will be most at-risk of
prolonged moderate to heavy rainfall. Beryl should ingest dry air
as it moves inland, creating a dry slot/precipitation void south
and southwest of the low pressure circulation. This will result in
a sharp gradient between very high rainfall totals and much less,
if any, rain. Subtle shifts in the track will pay dividends
regarding the precip forecast. Regardless...areas near and east of
the track of the storm can expect 4-7" of rain with some
receiving up to 10".

Beryl will not be the only weather-maker impacting our forecast
area Monday. A fairly well organized mid-level trough will dig
into the Southern Plains Sunday night and swing across Texas
Monday. The overnight convection mentioned in the Short Term
discussion will create an outflow boundary and a source of low-
level ascent to develop scattered showers and thunderstorms west
of Beryl`s circulation Monday afternoon. A north-south oriented
band of convection should develop between Beryl and the upper
trough, with locally heavy rain expected in this thin sliver of
convective activity. Unfortunately, if you are in Beryl`s path,
you`ll receive too much rain in a short duration, and if you`re
west of it and outside of the thin sliver of convective activity,
you`re more than likely not going to receive much more than 0.10"
of rain.

Beryl will eject northeast into Arkansas Monday night, taking most
of the rain with it by daybreak Tuesday. It will leave a warm and
humid airmass over the region, so it will not take much heating
to develop isolated to scattered showers and storms in the
afternoon. This will be the general pattern for the rest of the
week. Expect a warming trend each day, with scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. While we will generally remain below
Heat Advisory criteria, a Heat Advisory may be needed late in the
week or next weekend.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR and light southeasterly winds will prevail this morning. The
decaying complex of thunderstorms currently moving across western
Oklahoma may approach the Red River later this morning or early
this afternoon. However this activity and any associated wind
shifts should remain displaced well north of our TAF sites.

SHRA/TSRA associated with the Beryl`s outer rain bands will begin
moving onshore this afternoon. With the tropical cyclone still
located over the Gulf, the rain bands are only expected to reach
the Cedar Creek cornerpost during this period. Any subsequent
impacts from Beryl will likely begin approaching the TAF sites
just beyond the current TAF period.

Another convective complex will move southeastward from Oklahoma
later tonight. There remains some uncertainty regarding how
organized the complex will be as it pushes south of the Red River
and how far south it will move before dissipating. Have kept VCTS
at 05Z at the Metroplex airports immediately preceded by a
northeastward wind shift as there is likely to be an outflow
present out ahead of the convection. Confidence in direct impacts
to D10 airports is too low to include any mention with this
issuance but may be introduced in subsequent TAFs.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  75  86  72  90 /   5  30  60  40  30
Waco                96  75  84  70  89 /  10  20  60  40  20
Paris               94  72  82  68  85 /  10  50  80  70  50
Denton              97  71  86  70  90 /   5  50  60  30  20
McKinney            96  72  84  70  88 /   5  40  70  50  30
Dallas              97  75  86  72  90 /   5  30  70  40  30
Terrell             95  73  83  70  87 /  10  30  80  60  40
Corsicana           96  76  83  72  89 /  10  30  80  60  30
Temple              96  75  84  70  91 /  10  10  60  40  20
Mineral Wells       97  71  87  69  90 /   5  30  50  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for
TXZ121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

$$