968
FXUS64 KFWD 082022
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
322 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 137 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024/
/Through Tuesday/

Tropical Storm Beryl will scrape our southeastern boundary this
afternoon, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to our East Texas
counties. While its center may remain just beyond our CWA, this
is the closest a named storm has been since the remnants of
Tropical Storm Bill tracked up the I-35 corridor in June 2015.

--- Rainfall and Flooding ---

Although the heaviest amounts will be within the onshore fetch to
the right of Beryl`s path, average QPF values are still expected
to exceed 5 inches along the eastern edge of our CWA. Isolated
higher amounts are likely. The east/west rainfall gradient will be
sharp, but the current Flood Watch still pairs well with the area
most likely to experience flooding impacts.

--- Wind Gusts ---

Wind speeds to the left of Beryl`s center will be diminished by
the forward motion of the storm, and sustained speeds should
remain below Wind Advisory criteria. Nonetheless, peak gusts will
still top 40 mph on our side of the storm, primarily from Cameron
and Hearne to Palestine and Athens. Such gusts will be possible
elsewhere if convective elements are able to transport some of the
stronger momentum aloft down to the surface.

--- Tornado Potential ---

The tornado threat will be primarily confined to the northeast
quadrant, which will remain deeper into East Texas. However, a
brief spin-up will still be possible within our CWA, particularly
if the ongoing bands develop better separation.

--- Elsewhere Across the Region ---

Beryl`s rain shield is spreading westward but will struggle to
reach the I-35 corridor as wrap-around moisture battles the dry
advection of the northwest quadrant`s land breeze. However, the
proximity of the tropical cyclone should mean that its ring of
subsidence is beyond our CWA and that areas to the west of the
main precipitation will be largely unencumbered. Diurnal
convective development has already begun along the periphery of
the rain shield near the I-35 corridor, and additional showers
and isolated storms will also occur well west of I-35. The
convective nature of this activity will result in considerable
spread in rainfall amounts over short distances. In general,
storm totals will be under 1 inch along and west of the I-35
corridor, with many locations across the Big Country missing out
entirely.

--- Tonight ---

The remnants of Beryl will exit into the Ark-La-Tex tonight. Gusty
winds will persist across much of the region during the overnight
hours though speeds will gradually diminish. As is typical with
inland tropical systems, the diurnal convective activity around
its periphery will diminish this evening, leaving a smaller core
of nocturnal precipitation near the center. By midnight, the
rainfall will be confined to Northeast Texas, likely exiting our
CWA before daybreak Tuesday morning.

--- Tuesday ---

The sun will re-emerge on Tuesday with daytime temperatures
returning to the 90s. The exception will be our rain-soaked
portions of East Texas, which despite the sunshine, will only peak
in the 80s. The remnants of Beryl will continue to dominate the
surface wind field, the north winds reducing afternoon dew points
to more seasonal levels. However, steamy East Texas may keep dew
point values in the 70s throughout the day.

25

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Night through Monday/

The remnants of Beryl will be well removed to the northeast by
Tuesday night with a broad trough axis lingering across the
Mississippi River Valley northeast into the Great Lakes. Stronger
ridging will remain in place across the western CONUS through the
latter part of the week leaving North Texas beneath a weakness in
the height field. Weak winds aloft and a moist boundary layer
should result in hot and humid afternoons with low chances for
diurnally driven convection. The best moisture will be confined to
the Texas coast, but scattered sea breeze convection each
afternoon may make a run at our southern counties through the
weekend. Rain chances will generally be 20% or less each afternoon
with most locations remaining dry. Temperatures will also creep
back into the upper 90s by the end of the week with heat indices
near 105 degrees each afternoon.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 137 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Beryl has closed the southeast arrival gate and prevented
departures due east. A handful of arrivals continue through the
Bonham cornerpost, but northeast arrivals will be further
disrupted as the remnants of Beryl approach.

The main rain shield and strongest winds will remain to the east
of D10 (as well as the Waco terminal), but Beryl will maintain
north flow through Tuesday. Wind gusts will steadily increase
across the D10 airports this afternoon, then continue much of the
evening. Peak gusts may top 30kts but will be primarily around
25kts. Diurnally driven showers and storms will impact airport
operations this afternoon, with the rainfall coming to an end by
nightfall.

Ceilings will be highly variable: within the VFR category at
times this afternoon without ongoing convection, then becoming
primarily MVFR as the boundary layer cools and unseasonal north
winds prevail. VFR will prevail Tuesday with north flow.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  91  74  95  76 /  20   5   0   0   0
Waco                70  93  72  95  73 /  10   5   5   5   0
Paris               68  88  67  92  70 /  80  20   5   5   0
Denton              68  92  69  96  72 /  20   5   0   0   0
McKinney            69  90  70  95  73 /  40   5   0   0   0
Dallas              71  92  74  96  75 /  30   5   0   0   0
Terrell             69  90  70  94  71 /  70   5   5   0   0
Corsicana           71  93  72  95  74 /  50   5   5   0   0
Temple              70  94  72  95  72 /  10   5   5   5   0
Mineral Wells       68  93  69  96  71 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ095-105>107-121>123-
135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

$$