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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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221 FXUS64 KFWD 192358 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 658 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: No major changes were made to the previous forecast with tranquil weather conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Minor adjustments were made to tomorrow afternoon`s precipitation probabilities, adjusting them from 10% to 20% north and west of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. A growing number of high- resolution guidance suggests an outflow boundary will be approaching our northwestern counties by sunrise Saturday and stalling before reaching the I-20 and I-35 corridors. The boundary will provide just enough focus for a few diurnally driven thunderstorms. Given the low-level dry air in place and hot afternoon temperatures, inverted-V soundings will be present throughout the afternoon. This could lead to a few strong storms, mainly capable of gusty downburst winds. Storm chances will temporarily diminish after sunset before additional rain chances arrive closer to sunrise Sunday. Hernandez Previous Discussion: /This Afternoon through Saturday Night/ Mostly sunny and warm conditions will prevail through the rest of the afternoon as weak high pressure settles into the Arklatex. Light northeast winds will become a little more easterly this afternoon with scattered fair weather cumulus. Highs today should top out in the lower 90s. Northwest flow will prevail through the Plains tonight into Saturday and should send at least one shortwave southward toward North Texas through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing mainly off to our northwest late tonight. This activity may clip our far northwest counties late overnight or early tomorrow morning. Otherwise, we`ll have to see if any remnant outflow boundaries spread south into our area which may serve as a focus for isolated convective development on Saturday. PoPs will generally remain less than 10% in most areas. Slightly better rain chances may arrive late Saturday night as another shortwave pivots through the Plains. An area of focused low level warm advection should develop across southwest Oklahoma and should provide support for developing convection during this time. Some of this activity will likely spread into our northwest counties after midnight. Rain chances will increase further headed into Sunday and early next week. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 259 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ Update: No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, with below average temperatures and daily rain chances Sunday through the end of next week. Rain/storm chances will be the most widespread on Monday and will be accompanied by a threat for heavy rainfall and flooding. Ensure you monitor the forecast over the next few days for the latest information. Barnes Previous Discussion: /Next Week/ A strongly amplified ridge will remain across the West with a Bermuda high anchored off the East Coast. In between, negative height anomalies will prevail, maintaining an unsettled period for Texas with below normal temperatures and persistent rain chances. Despite how unusual this is for July, guidance is in fairly good agreement with the evolution of this troughing. Early in the week, the trough will attempt to backbuild to the southwest, sending spokes of energy into North Texas. The first in a series of impulses will arrive on Sunday, initially enhancing convection along a frontal boundary to our northwest. Scattered showers and storms will steadily increase in areal coverage across the region into the afternoon hours. As a result, Sunday will be noticeably cloudier than Saturday with lightning and gusty winds potentially disrupting outdoor plans. As a subsequent impulse arrives on Monday, the front will likely push deeper into North Texas, particularly if aided by outflow. Pooling moisture will push precipitable water values near maximum amounts for July, most notably across Central and East Texas where the heavy rain threat will also be maximized. Slow-moving efficient rain producers may introduce flooding concerns, especially in areas that have already experienced significant rainfall during preceding days. Monday`s high temperatures will generally be in the 80s, but daytime values may linger in the 70s if the precipitation is persistent enough. Highs in the 70s are rare during July and typically require considerable rainfall. Neither DFW nor Waco has seen a July day below 80F since 2014. (Killeen had a rainy day with a high of 79F in July 2021.) While Monday may be the wettest day of the bunch, extraordinary precipitable water values will linger the remainder of the week, with additional impulses providing daily rain chances. The cumulative impact of the rainfall will maintain the flood threat. The frontal boundary will no longer be in play on subsequent days, but the surface wind field should be weak enough to allow outflow boundaries to linger, serving as focal points for renewed development. The locations of these mesoscale features can`t be pinpointed at this time scale, and the forecast for the middle of next week will focus the highest PoPs and heaviest rainfall amounts across Central and East Texas where the deepest moisture will reside. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR and light northeasterly winds continue at all TAF sites across North and Central Texas. A few afternoon cumulus clouds remain, however, they are expected to dissipate closer to sunset. Tonight, expect southeasterly winds to return with continued VFR conditions. A few afternoon thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow, mainly northwest of the D10 airspace. No direct thunderstorm impacts are expected within to any North/Central Texas TAF sites. Winds will continue out of the southeast with additional cumulus clouds developing in the afternoon. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 95 76 92 74 / 0 5 10 40 50 Waco 70 96 74 94 73 / 0 0 0 30 30 Paris 66 91 70 88 70 / 0 0 5 30 50 Denton 70 95 73 92 71 / 0 5 20 40 60 McKinney 69 93 73 92 72 / 0 0 10 40 60 Dallas 72 95 76 92 74 / 0 0 10 40 50 Terrell 68 92 72 91 72 / 0 0 5 30 50 Corsicana 70 93 75 93 74 / 0 0 0 30 40 Temple 70 95 73 94 73 / 0 0 0 20 20 Mineral Wells 69 95 72 93 70 / 0 10 20 40 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$