008
FXUS64 KFWD 170015
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
715 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight Through Thursday Morning/

A hot afternoon has come to an end as high temperatures in the mid
90s to just above 100 and peak heat indices between 99-107 have
begun to lower. Outdoor conditions will continue to cool down
with the loss of heating, with overnight temperatures bottoming
out in the 70s and 80s. A longwave trough will continue to dig
southward across the western half of the CONUS overnight, shunting
the upper ridge further west and sending a cold front south
through the Plains. A couple of CAMs are hinting at light
precipitation echoes early tomorrow morning as a weak impulse
interacts with abundant moisture north of the Red River. Not much,
if any rain is expected out of this as the moisture is in the
mid-levels, but a couple sprinkles could not be ruled out if the
echoes make it father south into North Texas.

A shortwave disturbance rounding the base of the main trough will
push the front south of the Red River towards the afternoon on
Wednesday. This front is progged to enter our northwestern
counties around noon. Increased forcing for ascent from both the
shortwave and the accompanying frontal boundary will allow for
isolated to scattered showers and storms along the front. Not
everyone will observe a shower/storm, but for those that do: the
overall severe threat is on the lower end, but inverted V profiles
and large DCAPE will promote a primary threat for strong to
marginally severe wind gusts.

Both the front and accompanying showers/storms will slowly sag
southward late Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. By
daybreak Thursday, the front and its accompanying rain chances
will be located across Central Texas. Thursday morning will
feature continued cooler temperatures than the previous mornings
thanks to both rain-cooled air and cooler temperatures behind the
front.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 321 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024/
/Wednesday Night through Next Week/

Showers and storms will continue to push south into Central Texas
Wednesday evening, eventually dissipating Wednesday night with
the loss of diurnal instability. The cold front partially
responsible for the convection will stall somewhere across the
CWA, likely across Central Texas, providing focus for additional
development Thursday morning as a trailing shortwave passes
overhead. Morning convection should push south of the area
Thursday afternoon as the front sags farther south and east, and
precipitation will most likely remain south and east of the
region for the rest of the day. Weak flow aloft will preclude a
severe weather threat for the most part, though good instability
will support a few strong storms, and perhaps an isolated severe
storm or two with damaging downburst winds.

A lull in rain chances is expected on Friday as convection
remains focused across South Central and Southeast Texas along the
front, though low POPs will be kept across Central Texas where
isolated storms may still occur. The boundary will lift north
through Central and North Texas on Saturday as the next shortwave
trough drops south through the Plains. Widespread convective
development appears likely across Northwest Texas and Oklahoma
Saturday afternoon and evening as the shortwave continues dropping
south, with activity again focused along the front. The boundary
will reverse course again, returning south as a cold front along
with the associated convection Saturday night and Sunday, bringing
good rain chances for the latter half of the weekend. The slow
movement of the shortwave and the presence of the surface front
will provide additional storm chances for Monday and possibly
into Tuesday of next week.

Clouds, precipitation, and slightly cooler air behind the front
will also ensure below-normal temperatures during the Sunday
through next Tuesday period. Mid range guidance indicates that
weak troughing will linger overhead during the days 7 through 10
period, which points to seasonable temperatures and at least
slight chance POPs for the middle and latter part of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Southerly winds around 10-15 kts will continue overnight at all
TAF sites. A slow cold front will move through D10 late tomorrow
afternoon (beginning around 21Z), shifting winds to an overall
northerly flow. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the
frontal passage, with direct impacts to the terminals most likely
between 22-01Z. Main concerns will be lightning and occasionally
strong variable outflow winds. The front and its accompanying
storms will continue southward through tomorrow night, eventually
moving through ACT after midnight Thursday morning.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  99  76  93  74 /   0  30  30  30  10
Waco                77  99  75  95  73 /   0  20  30  50  20
Paris               79  94  72  88  69 /  10  30  30  40  10
Denton              79  98  73  94  71 /  10  30  30  20  10
McKinney            81  97  74  92  71 /  10  30  30  30  10
Dallas              81  99  77  94  74 /   0  30  30  30  10
Terrell             78  97  73  92  71 /   0  30  30  40  20
Corsicana           79  99  75  94  74 /   0  20  30  50  30
Temple              76  98  75  96  71 /   0  10  30  50  20
Mineral Wells       78  99  73  94  70 /   5  30  30  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-145-146.

&&

$$