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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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233 FXUS64 KFWD 170905 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 405 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024/ /Overnight through Thursday/ A quiet night is in progress across North and Central Texas, but the radar scopes are active north of the Red River where a semi- organized thunderstorm complex is ongoing. This is in response to the first of a few shortwave troughs digging into the Plains around the periphery of stronger ridging to the west. In addition, a chunk of cooler Canadian air is spilling south through the Plains where temperatures are in the 50s across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. A somewhat diffuse frontal boundary is located across northern Oklahoma and is helping to serve as the focus for thunderstorm development tonight. Most of this activity will remain well to the north of our area through the overnight hours. On Wednesday, as the aforementioned shortwave spreads into the Arklatex, the frontal boundary will also shift southward, likely aided by thunderstorm outflow, and will cross the Red River during the afternoon. While there won`t be a sharp temperature drop, it will be accompanied by a wind shift to the north and increased cloud cover. We`ll remain hot ahead of the boundary with temperatures likely again in the mid to upper 90s, but scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during peak heating along the boundary by mid to late afternoon. The boundary should be near the I-20 corridor during this time with our first decent rain chances expected in the Metroplex and spreading south into the late evening hours. We`ll have PoPs at 30-50% during this time as they should still be scattered in nature. While we can`t rule out a few strong storms with gusty winds, generally weak flow and modest instability should limit the overall threat for severe weather. It`s a little uncertain whether or not there will be any organization to the cluster of storms into the evening hours with the current thinking that they`ll likely persist for several hours after sunset, but with a general downward trend in intensity. The boundary itself will continue to push southward with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday mainly south of I-20. High temperatures on Thursday should only manage the upper 80s and lower 90s with more clouds and a light north wind. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Friday Through Next Week/ Unsettled weather will prevail this weekend and throughout the upcoming week. During this period, North and Central Texas will transition from a northerly flow regime to upper troughing, two unseasonal patterns that will maintain below normal temperatures and above normal rain chances. A low-level circulation associated with an aging frontal boundary will likely be over Southeast Texas on Friday. Its proximity will keep daytime showers and storms in the forecast for our Central and East Texas counties. But compared to Thursday, much more abundant sunshine should allow most areas to reach the 90s, even mid 90s across the Big Country. Although daytime temperatures will still be below normal across much of the region, Saturday may be the warmest day of the bunch with sunshine dominating once again. However, a shortwave embedded in northerly flow aloft may introduce some afternoon convection, particularly across western portions of North Texas. By Sunday, our northerly flow regime will give way to pronounced troughing in the Central Plains. This will mean an unseasonally cloudy period with daily rain chances. The rain chances (and rainfall amounts) will peak Sunday and Monday but will continue through the upcoming week. With considerable cloud cover and well-timed rainfall, some locations will see high temperatures only in the 80s. The convection should remain rather disorganized with little concern for severe weather. But with precipitable water values soaring to near maximum values for July, heavy rainfall will likely accompany the activity. For many areas, precipitation deficits this summer should preclude flooding issues, but the cumulative impact of multiple rounds of rain may eventually introduce some flooding concerns. .CLIMATE... DFW Airport reached 101 degrees on Tuesday, the 8th triple-digit day this year. This tally is ahead of the 30-year normal for the year to date, which is 5 days. However, Waco and Killeen are behind schedule. For both, the year-to-date normal is 6 days. Waco has only had 3 triple-digit highs so far this year while Killeen recorded its 5th of the year on Tuesday. 25 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024/ /6Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the overnight hours with increasing high cloud cover from thunderstorms to the north. South winds around 15 kt are expected. A frontal boundary and increasing storm chances will spread into North Texas on Wednesday afternoon. Winds should become more southwesterly ahead of the boundary with VCTS developing by 20Z. We`ll continue with a few hours of TEMPO TSRA from 21-00Z. Winds will become more northerly behind the main area of storms into Wednesday evening. VFR should prevail outside of any convective areas. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 98 75 89 74 92 / 50 40 40 5 10 Waco 98 76 92 72 93 / 20 40 50 20 30 Paris 95 70 82 69 88 / 40 60 40 5 5 Denton 97 73 90 70 93 / 50 40 30 5 10 McKinney 97 72 86 71 91 / 50 50 40 5 10 Dallas 98 76 90 74 93 / 50 50 40 10 10 Terrell 96 73 85 71 90 / 40 50 50 10 10 Corsicana 97 74 86 73 91 / 20 50 60 20 20 Temple 97 75 93 71 93 / 10 30 60 20 30 Mineral Wells 98 73 92 71 93 / 40 30 40 5 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$