899
FXUS64 KFWD 172308
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
608 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday Evening/

The line of storms which initiated along an earlier outflow
boundary will continue to push southeast and away from North and
Central Texas, though a trailing area of stratiform precipitation
east of the Metroplex may persist for another hour. A second
boundary which pushed south of the I-20 corridor provided focus
for additional development a bit farther west, hopefully bringing
rain to areas which badly need it. Those storms have since
generated a third outflow boundary which will need to be watched
for isolated thunderstorm development as it approaches I-35W from
the west.

Meanwhile, a shortwave dropping south within a north flow regime
will help drag a cold front through the region tonight. The front
itself will be another focus for convection overnight into
Thursday morning, with Central and East Texas again having the
better rain chances where the stronger forcing and highest
moisture content will be. Most of the shower and thunderstorm
activity will exit to the south and east during the day Thursday
as the front pushes south into South Central and Southeast Texas.
However, a lingering upper trough near the Texas/Louisiana border
will likely generate isolated thunderstorms east of the I-35
corridor Thursday afternoon, which will dissipate Thursday evening
with the loss of instability.

Severe weather is unlikely during the course of the event given
the 20 kt of effective shear, but enough instability exists to
support gusty winds up to 50 MPH and small hail. A storm or two
may still overachieve and produce damaging winds, similar to the
Kaufman County storm this afternoon which knocked down dozens of
power poles. Heavy rain may also cause flooding on a local scale
due to slow storm motions. Those who received rain today have also
experienced a nice break from the heat. The passage of the front
will cool things down a bit area-wide for Thursday, with
afternoon highs ranging from the mid 80s in the east to the lower
and mid 90s in the west.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 305 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024/
/Thursday Night Onward/

North and Central Texas will continue to be situated between a
longwave ridge to the west and a longwave trough to the east. This
mid-level pattern will keep northerly flow aloft in place and
persist with on and off rain chances through the end of the week as
impulses move around the base of the trough. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are expected through Friday afternoon across
Central Texas, closer to the axis of higher moisture and lift. We`ll
see an overall lull in precipitation over most of Saturday in
between the movement of small disturbances, though low chances for
isolated storms are possible Saturday afternoon for portions of
the Big Country and eastern Central Texas as one of those
disturbances moves overhead. More sunshine and the aforementioned
drier conditions will allow Saturday afternoon temperatures to
peak in the upper 80s to mid 90s, the warmest day for the rest of
the forecast period.

By the end of the weekend, a shortwave will dig south as it moves
along the periphery of the main longwave trough. The ridge will be
pushed even further west and the region will be enveloped within
the influence of the trough. Located just upstream of the trough
base, North and Central Texas will continue to observe unsettled
weather throughout the rest of the long term forecast period. In
response, on and off showers and storms will gradually increase
in coverage as we go into the first days of next week.
Additionally, PWATs will also surge to near 2" across the region.
Best chances for precipitation will once again be located across
Central and East Texas where the best moisture will be found.
Most likely total precipitation at any one place between Sunday
and Wednesday is 0.5-1.5" with isolated higher amounts of 1.5"-3".
While our recent dry spell has allowed soils to dry from our
fairly wet spring season, multiple rounds of showers over the next
7 days with some capable of heavy rain will bring back a concern
for flooding. This will be especially true for those areas that
see higher-end totals.

Switching over temperatures, the on and off rain chances and
persistent cloud cover will keep temperatures cooler than normal
for this time of year. Expect high temperatures in the mid 80s to
low 90s from Sunday through midweek of next week.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Thunderstorms along a pair of southward-pushing outflow boundaries
should continue to move south and away from the DFW Metroplex, but
may occasionally impact KACT over the next hour or two. A third
such boundary is approaching the DFW area from the west, and may
kick off an isolated storm or two before instability wanes, but
probabilities are too low to include in any of the TAFs at this
time. Isolated thunderstorms may redevelop late this evening
(03Z-06Z in the Metroplex, 06Z-09Z at KACT) as a weak cold front
pushes through the area. Activity should exit to the south of all
TAF sites by 12Z Thursday.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  92  73  91  73 /  30  20  10  10   0
Waco                74  94  72  92  71 /  40  20  20  20   5
Paris               72  84  69  86  67 /  60  40  10   5   0
Denton              72  93  69  92  69 /  30  10   5  10   0
McKinney            72  90  70  91  69 /  30  20  10   5   0
Dallas              74  92  73  91  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
Terrell             73  89  70  89  69 /  50  30  20  10   0
Corsicana           74  92  73  91  71 /  50  30  20  20   5
Temple              74  95  71  93  70 /  40  30  20  20   5
Mineral Wells       71  94  69  93  69 /  20   5   5  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$