022
FXUS64 KFWD 180522
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1222 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Friday/

Convection has generally been on the decrease through the late
evening, but over the last hour we`ve seen an uptick in coverage
across our eastern counties, and this trend looks like it will
continue at least for a few hours. Surface features are a little
messy at this time with light winds and only weak temperature and
moisture gradients which makes it a little difficult to pin down
exactly where the frontal boundary is located. Based on the
latest observations, it looks like it`s across the northern parts
of the Hill Country and then stretching back northward into the
Arklatex. This broad area of low level convergence is where much
of the ongoing convective activity is located. A slow southward
progression is expected through the rest of the night with rain
chances highest east of I-35 and across our far eastern counties.
Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the main threat given
the deep moisture content, and slow storm motions will likely
exacerbate this potential through the overnight.

On Thursday, the frontal boundary will continue to push farther
south with some drier air spilling into our northwest counties.
Most areas should remain precipitation free although we`ll still
have some 20-30% PoPs across our far eastern counties and some
late afternoon 20% PoPs back farther west into the I-35 corridor
to account for any isolated storms during peak heating. Otherwise,
a light north wind and temperatures in the lower 90s can be
expected. Friday should feature mainly dry conditions with
temperatures in the low to mid 90s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 305 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024/
/Thursday Night Onward/

North and Central Texas will continue to be situated between a
longwave ridge to the west and a longwave trough to the east. This
mid-level pattern will keep northerly flow aloft in place and
persist with on and off rain chances through the end of the week as
impulses move around the base of the trough. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are expected through Friday afternoon across
Central Texas, closer to the axis of higher moisture and lift. We`ll
see an overall lull in precipitation over most of Saturday in
between the movement of small disturbances, though low chances for
isolated storms are possible Saturday afternoon for portions of
the Big Country and eastern Central Texas as one of those
disturbances moves overhead. More sunshine and the aforementioned
drier conditions will allow Saturday afternoon temperatures to
peak in the upper 80s to mid 90s, the warmest day for the rest of
the forecast period.

By the end of the weekend, a shortwave will dig south as it moves
along the periphery of the main longwave trough. The ridge will be
pushed even further west and the region will be enveloped within
the influence of the trough. Located just upstream of the trough
base, North and Central Texas will continue to observe unsettled
weather throughout the rest of the long term forecast period. In
response, on and off showers and storms will gradually increase
in coverage as we go into the first days of next week.
Additionally, PWATs will also surge to near 2" across the region.
Best chances for precipitation will once again be located across
Central and East Texas where the best moisture will be found.
Most likely total precipitation at any one place between Sunday
and Wednesday is 0.5-1.5" with isolated higher amounts of 1.5"-3".
While our recent dry spell has allowed soils to dry from our
fairly wet spring season, multiple rounds of showers over the next
7 days with some capable of heavy rain will bring back a concern
for flooding. This will be especially true for those areas that
see higher-end totals.

Switching over temperatures, the on and off rain chances and
persistent cloud cover will keep temperatures cooler than normal
for this time of year. Expect high temperatures in the mid 80s to
low 90s from Sunday through midweek of next week.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail with a light north wind overnight into early
Thursday with mid cloud cover thinning toward morning. Most of the
convection tonight will remain to the east of the major airports,
but there is a low chance for an additional shower/storm through
the overnight. Most of the convection will again be to the south
and east of the major airports on Thursday with VFR prevailing.
North winds 5 to 10 kt will become more easterly later in the day.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  92  74  93  73 /  30  20   5   0   0
Waco                74  94  73  93  71 /  30  20   5   5   5
Paris               70  85  69  89  67 /  60  40  10   0   0
Denton              73  92  70  92  69 /  30  10   0   0   0
McKinney            74  91  69  91  69 /  30  20   5   0   0
Dallas              75  93  75  93  72 /  30  20   5   5   0
Terrell             72  90  70  91  69 /  50  30   5   5   0
Corsicana           73  90  72  91  71 /  50  20  10  10   5
Temple              75  95  72  94  70 /  40  40   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       70  94  70  92  69 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$