876
FXUS64 KFWD 182012
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
312 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 141 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/
/Through Friday Afternoon/

The weak summertime cold front that pushed through all of North
and Central Texas has now washed out near the Texas coast. Light
northerly winds will continue through the rest of the afternoon
before becoming more easterly this evening. That, along with some
residual cloud cover and afternoon showers and storms, will keep
us cool once again, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s.

A surface low associated with a mid-level shortwave will continue
pushing off to our southeast, which is serving as a focus point
for isolated convection across portions of North Texas and Central
Texas through the evening. The best potential will be east of
I-35, although the better moisture remains across East Texas and
into Louisiana. Because of this, there is a little bit of
uncertainty in the overall extent of coverage of convection.
Regardless, the probability is high enough to keep broad brushed
PoPs around 20% across the area in question.

Otherwise, a much quieter period can be expected. Any additional
thunderstorms that develop this afternoon and evening should
remain sub-severe, and residual convection from the surface low or
any outflow boundaries should quickly dissipate with the loss of
daytime heating. Clearing skies and light northeasterly to
easterly winds will allow for a pleasant and mild night, with lows
in the upper 60s and low 70s - a wonderful treat for a mid-July
morning. Mostly quiet conditions will continue into Friday, with
below normal temperatures once again and very low storm chances
across our extreme southeastern counties.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Night Onward/

A temporary return to uncomfortably hot weather will occur on
Saturday as the front currently draped across South Central and
Southeast Texas lifts north as a warm front. Highs in the mid 90s
with dewpoints approaching 70 will create max heat index values
near 100 for several locations. Fortunately, conditions will
likely not reach heat advisory criteria.

The next round of showers and thunderstorms will develop across
western Oklahoma and Northwest Texas Saturday afternoon as an
exceptionally slow moving upper trough eases south through the
Central and Southern Plains. Convection will likely initialize
along the aforementioned surface front and will push southeast
into North Texas Saturday night. The front will return southeast
as a "cold" front along with the scattered showers and storms,
before stalling stalling somewhere across the forecast area on
Sunday.

A couple of shortwaves will round the southern flank of the
parent trough, one on Sunday and another on Monday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop each day, with activity
focused along the front or any outflow boundaries resulting from
previous convection. The location of the highest rain chances will
depend on the position of the front and mesoscale boundaries,
which is uncertain at this juncture, so will include chance POPs
area-wide both Sunday and Monday. Severe weather is unlikely
either day, but instability will be high enough to support some
strong storms with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
rain.

By Tuesday, the front will have shifted south to near the
southern CWA boundary while the upper trough expands southwest
across the region. This pattern will remain in place through the
end of next week. The National Blended Model hasn`t quite caught
up to this scenario and is generating widespread high POPs across
most of the region for the Tuesday through next Thursday period.
This may be true for the Central Texas counties, but POPs will
decrease substantially the farther north and away from the surface
front you go. Will maintain sight chance POPs along the Red
River, chance across most of the region, with some likely POPs
across the southern-most counties.

With this expected pattern in place, we will need to keep an eye
on the flood potential across mainly Central Texas next week where
multiple rounds of rain, some heavy, are looking like a good
possibility. Whatever the case, rain, clouds, and the passage of
the front will bring pleasant temperatures by July standards in
Texas.


30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 141 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...Isolated Convection Possible This Afternoon/Evening.

VFR conditions will generally prevail for all TAF sites through
the period. Light north winds upwards of 10 knots will continue
through the rest of the day before becoming more easterly this
evening. Any outflow boundaries could occasionally lead to
gustier winds upwards of 25 to 30 knots but should be short-lived.
VCTS was added to the TAFs around 18-19z and should continue
through the early evening, ending around 00z. There could be some
additional development after, but all activity should quickly wind
down with the loss of daytime heating after sunset tonight.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  93  73  95  76 /   5   0   0   0  20
Waco                73  93  71  96  75 /   5   5   0   5   5
Paris               68  88  66  91  69 /  10   0   0   0  10
Denton              70  94  69  94  72 /   0   0   0   5  20
McKinney            70  92  69  94  73 /   5   0   0   0  20
Dallas              74  93  73  96  76 /   5   0   0   0  20
Terrell             71  90  69  93  72 /  10   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           73  92  71  95  75 /  10   5   0   5   5
Temple              71  94  71  97  75 /   5   5   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       69  94  70  95  72 /   0   0   0   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$