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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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414 FXUS64 KFWD 032324 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 624 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Thursday/ Another night of warm overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s approaching/exceeding record high minimum temperatures is expected tonight. Sunny skies and south-southwesterly low-level flow on the western periphery of an upper-level ridge will allow afternoon temperatures to rise into the 97-104 degree range across much of North and Central Texas Thursday. We will keep the Heat Advisory going for most of the forecast area through Thursday evening, minus our far southwestern zones where afternoon mixing will drop dewpoints into the low 60s. Fuels and vegetation have been drying out across the region due to this prolonged period of rain-free, hot conditions. With 4th of July celebrations expected to be in full swing over the next couple of days, we are concerned about an uptick in new fire starts. Thankfully, wind speeds will remain generally below 15 mph, limiting the potential for rapid wildfire growth and spread. However, do take extra caution if you are partaking in any "flammable" activities over the next couple of days. Stay safe and have fun y`all! Relief is in site! The 4th of July holiday will be the last day of widespread triple degree heat through at least the next 7 days (discussed in the long-term discussion below). Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /Issued 339 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024/ /Thursday Evening Through the Middle of Next Week/ After two weeks of summer heat, the 4th of July will be the last day with triple-digit temperatures for the foreseeable future. A pattern shift will replace the heat with increased cloud cover, rain chances, and below normal daytime temperatures that will continue well into next week. The transition may begin as early as Thursday evening when showers and storms associated with an approaching cold front could enter our northwest counties. But even in those areas, holiday festivities are unlikely to be adversely impacted. Some of the activity may survive through the night as the front enters North Texas, but much of the region will have to wait until the daylight hours Friday for renewed development along the boundary. Weak shear should maintain a disorganized convective mode, and the severe potential remains low. However, adequate destabilization across Central and East Texas Friday afternoon could allow for a few strong storms, particularly if the front or outflow boundaries can reach those areas that reach the upper 90s one final time. Our prolonged rain-free period should limit the flood potential, but slow storm movement and precipitable water values topping 2 inches could yield isolated instances of heavy rainfall. As is often the case with mid-summer fronts, the boundary will steadily lose its definition on Saturday. However, it may still be able to focus convective initiation Saturday afternoon, especially if previous activity helps to enhance the boundary. Seasonal southerly flow will regain control on Sunday when abundant sunshine will push daytime temperatures back closer to normal values. With little inhibition, a few afternoon showers and storms may develop Sunday afternoon. But the more organized convection will be in the Central Plains, the resulting MCS making a surge at North Texas late Sunday night into Monday morning. This could bring widespread rain to the region Monday, which would then be a remarkably mild day. Hurricane Beryl will spend the weekend crossing the Gulf of Mexico along the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche. While it may remain within the tropical easterlies, it could also recurve toward the col atop the Lone Star State. Guidance diverges, with ECMWF ensemble members clustered around a second Mexico landfall and GEFS members favoring Texas. The GEPS (Canadian ensembles) are a compromise between the two, matching both the official NHC forecast and a majority of other dynamic model solutions that keep Beryl`s center south of Brownsville. However, the trend has been steadily northward with all available guidance. This is still several days away, but a more northerly path could bring Beryl`s post-landfall deluge to North and Central Texas. We will continue to assess this potential as Beryl approaches. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR conditions and south winds at 8-12 kts gusting to 20 kts at times will prevail through the TAF period for all terminals. MVFR cigs may develop across portions of Central Texas early Thursday morning, possibly approaching KACT after 12Z (less than 20% chance). Langfeld && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 101 80 93 76 / 0 0 20 40 30 Waco 80 99 78 97 76 / 0 0 5 20 30 Paris 79 99 75 91 71 / 0 0 30 30 30 Denton 82 101 77 93 72 / 5 5 30 40 30 McKinney 82 101 77 93 73 / 0 0 30 40 30 Dallas 83 101 80 95 76 / 0 0 20 40 30 Terrell 80 99 77 94 74 / 0 0 10 30 40 Corsicana 80 99 79 98 77 / 0 0 5 20 40 Temple 78 98 77 98 75 / 0 0 0 20 20 Mineral Wells 80 101 76 93 73 / 0 0 20 40 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175. && $$