Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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986 FXUS64 KFWD 010516 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1216 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Trough Tuesday/ Not much change to our sensible weather is expected today compared to this past weekend as we remain under a strong ridge overhead. Warm and muggy conditions will persist through Tuesday with the Heat Advisory continuing throughout much of the region. The exception is across western portions of Central Texas, where a bit more afternoon mixing will keep heat index values below 105 degrees, therefore, no heat headlines are in place. The rest of the region will continue to see heat index values between 105 to 110 with light southerly/southwesterly winds persisting. There will be a weak shortwave that will traverse from north to south along the Texas/Louisiana border, likely leading to a few showers and storms across East Texas. Overall, the probability of any afternoon precipitation will remain limited to 20% across our far eastern counties. Rain chances will diminish after sunset, leaving behind hot and dry conditions through the middle of the week. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 313 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ Update: The forecast discussion below remains in good shape for the extended period. North & Central TX will continue to experience hot temperatures near the triple digit mark for much of the week, including the 4th of July holiday. An upper level trough will slide through the Plains Days 6-7, with a cold front likely knocking highs down into the 90s and bringing low storm chances. Gordon Previous Discussion: /Monday Night Through Next Weekend/ Widespread triple digit heat is expected throughout the week, with rain chances remaining near zero for most of the period. Despite a slight increase in temperatures, slightly lower humidity will keep heat index values close to or even slightly lower than we saw this past week - generally between 103-111 degrees. Expect ongoing heat headlines to continue through most of the week. Relief may be on the horizon, as there are indications the ridge will weaken late this week as a longwave trough/upper low moves into the Central CONUS. As a result, a weak front may slide into the region and would serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms. The best potential for showers and storms is currently expected to be on Friday and Saturday. However, keep an eye on the forecast if you have any July 4th plans, as timing is subject to change over the next few days. This will likely bring a temporary end to our streak of triple digit temperatures, with high temperatures in the 90s currently forecast for next weekend. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ Concerns...None Southerly/southwesterly winds and VFR skies will prevail across North and Central Texas. High clouds continue to stream in from the east, however, impacts to the aviation community are not expected. A few afternoon showers and storms will be possible across East Texas today. These should remain outside of the D10 airspace, reducing any potential impacts to North Texas arrivals/departures. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 101 82 102 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 78 99 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 76 97 77 98 78 / 5 20 5 0 0 Denton 79 101 79 102 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 80 100 80 101 81 / 0 5 0 0 0 Dallas 80 101 83 102 83 / 0 5 0 0 0 Terrell 78 99 78 99 79 / 0 10 5 0 0 Corsicana 77 100 80 101 81 / 0 5 5 0 0 Temple 76 99 77 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 76 101 77 102 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175. && $$