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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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401 FXUS64 KFWD 302013 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 313 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 141 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ /Today and Tomorrow/ Hot weather will continue for the next couple days as large scale subsidence under an anomalously strong mid-level high height center dominates. The past few days we`ve had a high pressure system over East Texas/Louisiana that promoted southerly flow and kept dew points in the low to mid 70s. The high has elongated along the Gulf Coast, resulting in light surface flow over our region and weakening the influx of moisture. While the airmass will remain humid...deep mixing should result in a subtle daily reduction in dew point during peak heating. That`s the good news. The bad news is that the mid-level high will build and the low- level flow will veer, resulting in higher temperatures each afternoon for the next couple days. The net result will be a continuation of heat index values in the 105-112 range for most of the area. We will need to extend the Heat Advisory through Monday and may issue an Excessive Heat Warning across northeast Texas. The exception will be across parts of Western Central Texas (roughly west of I-35 and south of I-20) where the heat index will be within 1-2 degrees of the ambient temperature and there won`t be a need for additional heat products. A cold front did move into southern Oklahoma this morning that is helping develop scattered storms to our north. Most of this activity will remain out of our forecast area, however there is a 20% chance of an isolated storm along our Red River counties this afternoon. Similarly, as the mid-level ridge shifts, there is a 20% chance of isolated storms over East Texas tomorrow afternoon. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ Update: The forecast discussion below remains in good shape for the extended period. North & Central TX will continue to experience hot temperatures near the triple digit mark for much of the week, including the 4th of July holiday. An upper level trough will slide through the Plains Days 6-7, with a cold front likely knocking highs down into the 90s and bringing low storm chances. Gordon Previous Discussion: /Monday Night Through Next Weekend/ Widespread triple digit heat is expected throughout the week, with rain chances remaining near zero for most of the period. Despite a slight increase in temperatures, slightly lower humidity will keep heat index values close to or even slightly lower than we saw this past week - generally between 103-111 degrees. Expect ongoing heat headlines to continue through most of the week. Relief may be on the horizon, as there are indications the ridge will weaken late this week as a longwave trough/upper low moves into the Central CONUS. As a result, a weak front may slide into the region and would serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms. The best potential for showers and storms is currently expected to be on Friday and Saturday. However, keep an eye on the forecast if you have any July 4th plans, as timing is subject to change over the next few days. This will likely bring a temporary end to our streak of triple digit temperatures, with high temperatures in the 90s currently forecast for next weekend. Barnes && .AVIATION... /Issued 141 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR and south flow will prevail through the valid TAF period. Wind speeds should generally remain AOB 10 kts, be out of the southwest between ~10-16Z, then the southeast between 20-05Z. No sig weather is expected at ACT or D10, but isolated storms could impact the Bowie cornerpost between about 19-00Z today and tomorrow afternoon. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 102 82 102 83 / 0 5 0 0 0 Waco 80 101 78 101 79 / 0 5 0 0 0 Paris 77 95 77 97 78 / 10 20 0 0 0 Denton 81 102 80 103 81 / 0 5 0 0 0 McKinney 80 101 80 101 81 / 5 10 0 0 0 Dallas 82 101 82 102 83 / 0 5 0 0 0 Terrell 78 100 78 100 79 / 0 10 0 0 0 Corsicana 80 100 80 101 81 / 0 10 0 0 0 Temple 79 101 77 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 78 102 77 103 79 / 0 5 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ129-130-141>143- 156-157. && $$