691
FXUS64 KFWD 012347
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
647 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Tuesday Night/

Mid level ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern
through the middle part of the week with temperatures above 100
degrees expected and little chance for rainfall. Nearly cloud
free skies prevail beneath the ridge this evening, although an
axis of higher moisture content across East Texas has lead to a
few scattered showers and storms. This activity will diminish over
the next 1-2 hours as the sun goes down. Clear skies are expected
tonight with temperatures again only falling into the lower 80s.

The center of the ridge axis will begin an eastward shift later
tonight and mid level heights will actually fall a bit through
Tuesday and the middle of the week. This eastward shift will allow
low level flow above the surface to become a little more westerly
resulting in deeper mixing and slightly less humidity on Tuesday.
Despite the drier air, temperatures will likely be the warmest
with highs between 101-105 degrees. Heat indices will be near
ambient air temperatures west of I-35 and between 105-110 degrees
farther to the east. An isolated shower may creep into our
eastern/southeastern counties through early evening, but chances
are generally 10% or less.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 218 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024/
/Wednesday and Beyond/

North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of a stout
upper ridge through the middle portions of this week keeping
mostly sunny, hot, and dry weather through the 4th of July
holiday. Expect afternoon highs in the mid-90s to lower 100s both
Wednesday and Thursday with heat index values peaking in the
103-108 degree range. Most of our area will likely need extensions
to current heat headlines. Therefore, continue to take the
necessary precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses, especially
if you plan on being outside for extended periods time on the 4th.
Drink plenty of water, take a dip in the pool or a break in the
A/C, and wear light-colored clothing!

A notable change in the weather pattern is expected to take place
in the late Thursday-Friday time frame. Troughing over the
Central Plains will help send a weak cold front toward North Texas
Thursday night into Friday morning. This slow, southward-moving frontal
boundary will serve as a focus for isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development through the latter half of Saturday. Most
likely rain amounts look to remain generally in the 0.2-0.5"
range with isolated totals upward of an inch. This frontal
boundary and increase in cloudiness will also bring about a mid-
summer "cooldown" for at least the first half of the weekend.
Afternoon temperatures will drop down into the low to mid-90s
(possibly even upper 80s) for much of the region Friday and
Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, the continuing weather pattern is a bit of a
toss-up. Just over half of the EPS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble members keep
an active weather pattern over the Central US with strong ridging
placed over the Western CONUS. The other half attempts to build a
ridge back over the state of Texas, keeping rain chances on the
lower end. We will also be monitoring Hurricane Beryl as it
crosses the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend. The vast majority of
guidance currently keeps a Gulf of Mexico landfall down in Mexico
with impacts to North and Central Texas unlikely. Continue to
monitor for updates over the next several days now that we have
weather other than just hot and dry in the forecast!

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR is expected to prevail with southerly winds (variable between
160-210 degrees) 10-15 kt through Tuesday. No significant aviation
concerns are expected through the period.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82 101  82 100  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                78 101  78  99  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               78  99  79  98  79 /   5   5   0   0   0
Denton              80 103  79 101  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            80 101  80 100  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              83 102  82 100  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             78 100  79  98  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           80 101  79 100  80 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              77 101  76  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       78 103  78 101  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$