302
FXUS64 KFWD 030610
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
110 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

The mid-level ridge across North and Central Texas continues to
deflect any prospects for rain away from the region. Instead,
we`ll continue to experience above normal temperatures with even
warmer heat index values.

Today, temperatures across North Texas will mostly range between
100-104 degrees with heat index values between 106 to 108. In
Central Texas, highs will remain in the mid to upper 90s, however,
given better moisture, heat index values will also range between
106 to 109. Not much overnight recovery is expected tonight with
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

4th of July will be another hot one with temperatures reaching the
triple digit mark across much of the region. With heat index
values above 105 degrees, plan now on ways to mitigate the risk of
heat related illnesses if you`ll be celebrating outdoors. Bring
plenty of water, seek shade, and wear lightweight and light-
colored clothing!

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 309 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024/
/Independence Day Through Next Week/

The mid-level ridge responsible for our extended period of above
normal temperatures will steadily deamplify the remainder of the
week, eventually repositioning itself over the Southeast U.S. The
final day of our current bout of heat will be Independence Day
when a Central Plains storm system will allow a rare mid-summer
cold front to invade the Southern Plains. This will also mark a
pattern shift that will maintain milder temperatures and above
normal precipitation chances through the second week of July.

The 4th of July will be indistinguishable from other recent hot
days with many locations reaching the century mark. Unseasonably
rich moisture will push heat index values into the 105 to 110
range across much of the region. Despite a steady (albeit light)
south wind, the risk of heat-related illness will be high,
particularly for those engaging in outdoor activities who are not
accustomed to spending much time exposed to this level of heat
and humidity. Take all necessary precautions to avoid heat stress,
including wearing light-colored/loose-fitting clothing, drinking
plenty of water, and taking frequent breaks in the shade or in
air-conditioned areas. Rain and storms are not expected to impact
holiday festivities with afternoon/evening activity confined to
two areas: (1) along the front from West Texas into Oklahoma and
(2) sea breeze convection to our southeast. However, there is a
low chance that the frontal activity could enter our northwest
before midnight Thursday night.

Without the ridge to prevent its forward progress, the cold front
will move deep into North Texas on Friday. Showers and storms will
accompany its passage, but reduced instability and seasonally weak
shear should preclude any severe weather. Even outside of rain-
cooled areas, increased cloud cover in the postfrontal air will
result in the mildest daytime temperatures since before the summer
solstice. The exception will be much of Central and East Texas,
which may remain in the sunny pre-frontal sector during the
afternoon hours. This could increase the instability enough to
allow a few strong storms if the boundary mechanics are adequate.

The front will likely stall or retreat on Saturday. Even if the
post-frontal air never reaches Central Texas, rain chances and
increased cloud cover should finally allow the entire region to
enjoy below normal daytime temperatures. Sunshine and southerly
winds will return early next week with a corresponding rise in
temperature, but the ridge`s absence will cap afternoon highs in
the mid 90s. The lack of inhibition will also maintain daily rain
chances.

Throughout next week, the Lone Star State will remain beneath a
col, separating the Southeast ridge from a similar bubble over the
Desert Southwest. There is an outside chance that this could
encourage Beryl to approach. The GFS is the most bullish with this
scenario, but a plurality of extended solutions favors
persistence. We will continue to assess this with subsequent
forecasts, but this afternoon`s package will include a new Day 7
(Tuesday next week) that will maintain seasonal temperatures and
above normal precipitation chances.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Another great flying day is expected across North and Central
Texas. VFR and southerly winds will persist through the duration
of this forecast. No significant weather impacts are expected at
any North/Central Texas TAF sites.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82 100  80  92  75 /   0   0  20  50  30
Waco                78 100  78  97  75 /   0   0   5  40  40
Paris               80  98  76  91  70 /   0   5  30  40  30
Denton              80 101  77  92  71 /   0   0  20  40  30
McKinney            80 100  78  92  73 /   0   0  20  40  30
Dallas              82 101  80  94  75 /   0   0  20  50  30
Terrell             79  98  77  93  73 /   0   0  10  40  40
Corsicana           80  99  79  97  75 /   0   0   5  40  40
Temple              77  99  77  98  75 /   0   0   0  30  40
Mineral Wells       78 101  77  92  71 /   0   0  20  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$