711
FXUS63 KFSD 200336
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1036 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather through the rest of the weekend, with scattered
  showers and thunderstorms again Saturday. Some funnel
  development may be possible Saturday along with very locally
  heavy rainfall.

- Many outdoor events this weekend will want to make sure to
  have an eye on the radar as activity will be rather variable
  in location and rapid to develop.

- Cooler temperatures continue into next week, with near daily
  rain chances. Rain however won`t impact all locations, and
  will be very hit-or-miss.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Showers and thunderstorms organized quickly this morning and dropped
south through the day. This has allowed a relatively stable air mass
to settle in behind the showers and thunderstorms. What this should
mean for the remainder of the afternoon and evening is nothing more
than very isolated showers and thunderstorms with any locations that
can reach the convective temperature. Instability and shear are
minor so not expecting anything more than very localized heavy rain
and lightning. Weak low to mid level warm advection continues across
parts of northwest IA and northeast NE through the night which
should allow for scattered activity, with a small uptick late
tonight into Saturday morning when the wobbles a touch north and
strengthens just a touch.

Saturday will see the upper level low drift around in northwest IA
before slowly moving south. This should keep scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms in the area, but given the expected shear
and instability severe weather looks very isolated. The threat
should again be very localized heavy rainfall. With the upper level
low nearby and low LFC`s a few funnel clouds cannot be ruled out.

Sunday through Tuesday should see a diurnal cycle to shower and
thunderstorm activity as the weakening upper level low pressure
remains in the area. Model soundings indicate weak instability each
afternoon with weak shear so isolated to scattered activity will be
possible but severe weather is not expected. Temperatures will
remain below the seasonal normal, but warm into the lower 80s by
Tuesday.

Wednesday into Friday should see upper level ridging build back into
the area with drier conditions and temperatures climbing back to
around or a touch above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Fog and stratus are expected to develop tonight as winds
continue to become light. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected
with this development. Less certainty near KSUX into
northwestern IA where showers may redevelop overnight into early
Saturday, so went with rain over fog in prevailing. Stratus
continues into Saturday evening especially along/east of I-29
with low pressure pivots off to the east.

Uncertainty continues through the TAF period with isolated to
scattered convection into Saturday night. 20.00z models are
becoming a bit more isolated with coverage for areas north and
west of KFSD, so narrowed and delayed PROB30 group for KHON.
Showers and storms could produce locally heavy rain, reducing
visibility to MVFR or IFR conditions.

Above the stratus, thicker wildfire smoke is expected over the
area through the period. This should remain aloft, around 20kft
or higher. Winds shift to easterly toward Saturday afternoon.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SG