![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
127 FXUS63 KFSD 141734 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly cooler today, but high humidity leads to high heat index readings of 95 to 105 degrees, hottest south of the I-90 corridor. Heat Advisory remains in effect for this area until 8 PM. - An area of thicker wildfire smoke can be seen on satellite advecting into south central SD. This moves east through the afternoon; however, no surface impacts are currently expected. - Showers and storms are possible tonight into Monday morning, although confidence is very low in coverage and timing. If storms can develop and/or move into the area, they may quickly become strong to severe with all hazards possible. - Unsettled pattern continues into the middle of next week with periodic low shower and storm chances. Starting Tuesday, temperatures will be near to below normal for this time of year. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 An MCS with winds at times of 70+ mph has been pushing across the western and central portions of SD early this morning. This system is presently entering the western borders of our CWA, and in a very unstable atmosphere (MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG) will continue to feed eastward through the early morning hours. ALthough it may weaken a bit as it moves to the east, winds of 60 to 70 mph are still possible west of Interstate 29. The HRRR has had the best handle on this feature over the past several hours, and has it weakening by the time it gets to the Interstate 29 corridor around 10 to 11Z. Once this system weakens/exits our area, the remainder of the day looks to be dry in a strongly capped atmosphere. Otherwise, the main concern turns to the warm temperatures and high humidity for today. With 850 mb temperatures in the 20s C, our highs have the potential to reach the lower to mid 90s over much area. This is with the expectation that skies clear fairly early after this mornings convection. These temperatures combined with dew points will yield afternoon heat indices of 100 to 105 over the southern portions of the CWA, and this is covered well by the current heat advisory. As has been the case of late, uncertainty on thunderstorm chances remains uncertain for tonight with the usual model differences. An upper level shortwave is expected to drop across ND/SD tonight, and in the presence of a boundary draped from northwestern SD into southwestern MN, some hi-res guidance (NAMNest/FV3/ARW) suggests a potential for another MCS to develop over ND in the late evening. This activity would then drop southward across portions of our area during the early to middle night time hours. With midlevel lapse rates around 8 C/KM, MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/KG, and effective bulk shear of 40-50 kts, severe storms are again possible with hail to the size of golf balls, winds to 70 mph, and an isolated tornado possible with low LCLs and a boundary present. Again, this is if it develops over our area - as some models either do not develop it or keep it primarily north of our area. On Monday, the frontal boundary slowly drops southward across our area, and with ensuing cold air advection temperatures will be slightly cooler than recent days - in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Still, with dew points remaining in the lower to mid 70s, afternoon heat indices could approach 100 degrees through the lower MO River Valley into northwestern IA. Our area will still remain capped for Monday, though some model guidance would suggest the possibility of thunderstorm development in the afternoon - perhaps focused more through east central SD into southwestern MN - though again confidence is low. By Monday night the cold air advection becomes more pronounced as the frontal boundary slides to the south of our area, with lows falling into the lower 60s. This will be followed by persistent near to below normal temperatures for the remainder of the week as an upper level trough deepens southward through the MS Valley region and eastward through early Friday, keeping our area in a northwesterly upper level flow. Although there will be periodic rain chances through the period, probabilities remain low. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 An area of thicker wildfire smoke is advecting into the area this afternoon; surface impacts are not expected, but expect more SCT to BKN skies. Otherwise, very patchy MVFR stratus in southwestern MN continues to dissipate with scattered diurnal cumulus beginning to form. Showers/storms are possible tonight into Monday morning; however, guidance is struggling to resolve coverage and timing. There may also be multiple rounds of storms during the period. If storms can develop or move into the area, strong to severe storms may occur with all hazards possible. Given low confidence, have included a couple of PROB30 groups at KHON, but omitted from KFSD/KSUX given the uncertainty in the southern extent. Outside of any convection, VFR conditions expected. Winds generally around 5-10 knots through the period with direction varying. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ050-057>071. MN...None. IA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001>003- 012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ013-014. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...SG