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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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700 FXUS63 KFSD 201943 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 243 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, then again on Sunday. Some funnel development may be possible this afternoon along a weak surface front, but still unlikely with low confidence. Severe weather is unlikely with any activity this afternoon into Sunday. - Many outdoor events this weekend will want to make sure to have an eye on the radar as activity this weekend will be rather variable in location and rapid to develop. - Cooler than normal temperatures continue into Tuesday, with near daily rain chances. Rain however won`t impact all locations, and will be very hit-or-miss. - Temperatures will begin to climb upwards for the second half of the week, with 50-70% probabilities of 90 degree temperatures along and west of the James River by Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Diurnally driven scattered showers and very isolated thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into the evening. With CAPE around 1000 J/kg but no shear and freezing levels about 11-12 kft severe weather is very unlikely. However with lower LFC`s an isolated funnel cloud will remain possible as well as very locally heavy rain. With light winds and a fairly saturated boundary layer fog will again be possible overnight into Sunday morning. Sunday should see another uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon and evening as the upper level low is slow to move out. Model soundings suggest that not a lot of heating will lead to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with a very similar environment to today. That means very little severe weather threat, but isolated locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Very little changes Monday into Tuesday as model soundings continue to show the potential for mainly diurnally driven showers and isolated thunderstorms. Nothing overly organized with a slightly better chance east of the James River. Nothing expected to be severe with marginal CAPE and little to no shear. Once again the threat will be very localized heavy rain. Temperatures remain below normal but do warm a touch into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Drier and warmer weather returns Thursday into Saturday as upper level ridging builds across the Plains. Should see widespread highs in the mid and upper 80s with lows generally in the 60s, although by late in the week lows may only fall into the lower 70s. If any thunderstorms can develop it appears the better chance would be in central through northeast SD where the axis of better instability should be. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 MVFR and IFR conditions in fog and stratus are slowly improving and little should be lieft after about 19z. Once clouds clear a bit any small heating should allow isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop as an upper level low pressure moves slowly throgh the area. There should be a down trend in activity tonight into Sunday morning, then more activity will be possible again Sunday afternoon. Fog and stratus will again be possible overnight into Sunday morning with MVFR and IFR conditions possible. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...08