Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
351 FXUS63 KFSD 080328 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1028 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through sunset this evening. While the threat for severe weather is very low, small hail and a brief funnel cloud would be possible. - Unsettled weather continues through the first half of this week with spotty afternoon to early evening showers/storms Sunday through Wednesday. Severe weather is not expected. - Cooler than normal temperatures for early July through the early part of next week, but trending warmer and more humid by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Afternoon/Evening: Forecast sounding again show up to roughly 1000 J/kg of largely uncapped MLCAPE with at least modest forcing courtesy of next vort lobe evident on WV imagery spinning southward through central/western Dakotas. Instability and shear (25-30kts) not as impressive as yesterday, nor is forcing as dynamic, so while I couldn`t completely discount a stronger storm or two, severe weather much less likely. Outside of some small hail, a second concern would be a rogue funnel cloud with some signal in the sfc vorticity/0-3 km MLCAPE overlap. This activity should fade through the second half of the evening with loss of daytime heating. Overnight: Still some hints of some patchy fog as winds again go light and variable but HREF probabilities not as high as yesterday and so have patchy fog mention more confined. Monday through Wednesday: A rather stagnant pattern as region remains on the backside of the upper level trough and thus will maintain low end diurnally driven shower chances each afternoon and early evening. These look to be most prevalent near and especially east of I-29. Temperatures gradually warm a degree or two each day but generally upper 70s to mid 80s for afternoon highs. Thursday through Saturday: Upper level ridging builds eastward through the second half of the week into the weekend and with it will bring warming temperatures and increasing humidity levels as southerly return flow intensifies. No significant precipitation drivers but an occasional wave in the initial mid level northwest flow could ruin this period from being completely dry. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions will continue for the duration of the TAF period. Taking a look across the area, any lingering showers will gradually continue to dissipate over the next hour or so. Otherwise, quieter conditions will return as lighter winds continue for the duration of the period. Lastly, lingering low level moisture could lead to some patchy areas of fog mostly along the Missouri River Valley tonight. However, confidence in occurrence is low at this time. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kalin AVIATION...Gumbs