693
FXUS65 KFGZ 031923
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1223 PM MST Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions continue for most of northern
Arizona through the weekend and into early next week. The chance for
showers or storms will be limited to the White Mountains through
Monday, with a slow return back north and west possible toward the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are developing
this afternoon mainly south of a Payson to Heber to St Johns line.
This activity is not particularly strong as MUCAPE values are
<750 J/kg. Some gusty winds to 35 mph, brief downpours, and small
hail could accompany these storms. Elsewhere, the major drying
trend continues. Sfc dewpoints have fallen off into the 20s and
30s which is much drier than normal for this time of year. Skies
are mostly sunny with temperatures a few degrees above normal.

4th of July through the Monday - the strong ridge just off the
west coast will dominate our weather as it drifts slowly toward
Arizona. With the center of the high remaining to our west, this
places northern Arizona in a northerly flow pattern which is quite
unfavorable for monsoon moisture. The ensemble average
Precipitable Water values for Flagstaff fall to under a quarter
inch by Friday, well below the 10th percentile and approaching the
lowest values observed for early July. The low chance of showers
and thunderstorms will be confined near the White Mountains with
dry weather elsewhere. The heat will build, with afternoon highs
5-12 degrees above seasonal averages. The Excessive Heat Warning
below 4000 feet begins tomorrow and is valid through Monday. This
includes Yavapai County, the Grand Canyon, and Marble/Glen Canyons
in the Page area. Please practice heat safety this holiday weekend,
especially if you have outdoor plans at the lower elevations.

Tuesday and Wednesday - the ridge is forecast to be centered just
north of the state. While hot weather is likely to continue, this
ridge position is just slightly more favorable for getting some
limited moisture back into the area. The latest forecast is for a
20-30% chance of rain along/south of the Mogollon Rim and somewhat
higher values toward the White Mountains. North of the rim, the
heat may prompt an extension of the Excessive Heat Warning beyond
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 03/18Z through Thursday 04/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible from 19Z-01Z, mainly SE of
a KSOW-KSJN line. Daytime sfc winds SW-W10-20kts, otherwise
light.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 04/18Z through Saturday 06/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions and light winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Friday...Shower and
thunderstorm chances retreat to southern Apache County this
afternoon, with dry conditions Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
will climb well above average. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph today
become lighter on Thursday, with a switch to northerly.

Saturday through Monday...Hot and dry conditions are expected for
most areas through Sunday. Slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms over of the White Mountains and Eastern Mogollon Rim
through Sunday and then spreading to the Western Mogollon Rim
Monday. Daily northwest through northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ Thursday to 8
PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff